One of the common themes to Dodgers baseball is the constant talk of Dave Roberts and all the moves he makes and whether the Dodgers win in spite of him. Another common theme is the sabermetric approach that the Front Office has taken towards the game and some of the crazy lineups, pitching changes and situations those metrics have produced.
We’ve seen players have big games, game winning hits and walk off homeruns, then not play the next game. We’ve also seen relievers start games, starters relieve games, and just about everything else in between. It certainly makes for great water cooler talk, but it also has made for great baseball as well.
Since 2016
Dave Roberts took over as manager of the Dodgers in November of 2015 and has been the manager in the 6 seasons since. In those 6 seasons, Roberts has compiled a 542-323 record in the Regular Season and is 43-29 in the postseason. His teams have finished first in the NL West in every season he has managed until this year, a year in which the Dodgers won 106 games. In fact, this year tied the Dodgers highest regular season win total in Roberts tenure. The Dodgers had an identical 106-56 record in 2019 as well before losing to the Washington Nationals in the Divisional Series. The Nat’s went on to defeat the Astro’s in the World Series to become World Champions that year.
In Spite or Because
The first response of many Dodgers fans will be to point out the fact that he has been handed a roster full of the greatest players in the game and that is 100% correct. But, does that automatically mean that the Dodgers win in spite of him?
Let’s compare him to some Hall of Fame Managers that had access to the same talent advantage that Roberts has had the luxury to manage in LA.
Roberts has an overall regular season winning percentage of .626 and his teams have won the NL West every year except this year, a 106 win campaign. That .626 winning percentage is better than that of Joe Torre’s winning percentage during his time with the Yankees, Casey Stengel, Joe McCarthy, Miller Huggins, Ralph Houk and Tommy Lasorda.
If Don Mattingly popped in your head as you read that I understand. His teams also won the NL West 3 times in a row and he got fired just before Roberts took over. Well, actually, Mattingly and the Dodgers agreed to mutually part ways, but let’s try and get Mattingly’s tenure out of your mind.
Mattingly’s teams lost in the Divisional Series in each of his last 2 years, and while the Dodgers did make it to the NL Championship Series in 2012, his playoff record as a manager in his last 3 years was just 8-11. To add fuel to the fire, that 8-11 record was accompanied by 0 World Series appearances and just 1 postseason series win in total. So, while Mattingly’s teams won a lot of games and won the NL West in his last 3 seasons, that success was hollow because it didn’t translate into the postseason which is the only thing that matters to a fanbase like the Dodgers.
Hall of Famers
If comparing Roberts regular season record to Hall of Fame managers doesn’t move the needle for you I understand. After all, the managers in those comparisons won 24 World Series so Roberts surely can’t compare to them can he?
Robert’s postseason winning percentage is .597 which is just .008 percentage points lower than Joe Torre’s winning percentage during his time as the Yankee manager. While it’s a miniscule amount lower than Joe Torre’s winning percentage with the Yankees, it’s better than Tommy Lasorda and Ralph Houk’s overall winning percentage and exactly the same as Miller Huggins.
But, what about the 24 World Series titles that those managers won, how does Robert’s stack up with that?
Joe Torre won 4 World Series with the Yankees in 12 years, so he averaged 1 every 3 years. Casey Stengel won 7 World Series titles in 25 years so he averaged 1 every 3 ½ years and all of his titles were with the Yankees. Miller Huggins won 6 Titles in 17 years, Ralph Houk won 4 in 20 years and Tommy Lasorda won 2 in his 21 year managerial career.
If the Dodgers win the World Series this year, something of which Dodgers fans expect, Roberts will have won 2 World Series in his 6 year managing career. That means that he will be equal or ahead of the average pace of championships of the greatest managers of all time and will also have a better winning percentage than all of them as well.
Big If
The Dodgers are down 2-0 to the Braves in a series in which they do not have home field advantage, so winning the World Series at this point is a huge “if”. But, to go from that possibility, which would place him on pace to be one of if not the greatest statistical manager of all time, to the idea that the Dodgers win in spite of him is a big leap. And, also, keep in mind that with most of those managers, they won those World Series Titles before the era of Free Agency. Further, if the Dodgers win the World Series this year, they will be just the 15th back to back Champion in the history of the MLB and 7 of those have been won by the Yankees and most all before Free Agency.
