Andy Pages is a 21-year-old outfielder in the Dodgers organization that has every tool and is one of the best prospects in the Dodgers organization and the Minor Leagues overall. Pages has a world of power, is widely known as a clubhouse favorite, and is projected as an everyday starter for the Dodgers.Â
Pages TurningÂ
Pages signed in 2017 at the extremely young age of 16 out of Cuba and played all but the last 10 games of his first professional season in 2018 in the DSL. His last 10 games were played stateside, in the DSL, which allowed him to get comfortable with his surroundings and propelled him forward toward a fantastic season the next year, 2019.Â
Pages was made even more comfortable to begin 2019 when he was reunited with his manager from the DSL Austin Chubb. Chubb is a very well-liked “players-manager” that has been instrumental in Pages development as he managed him in 2018 in the DSL, in 2019 with Ogden, then again in 2021.Â
Minor League baseball was canceled in 2020. so coming into this last year in 2022, Pages had known just one manager, that being Chubb. Â
As you can imagine, the 2 have become very close and have built a very unique relationship that has led to great progress for the young outfielder, so when I asked him about Chubb, he had a lot of great things to say.
“He does a great job making guys like me feel comfortable and helping them play to their best. I really like playing for him and we are almost like brothers. I know I can call him or talk to him and he’s always been there to help any time I have needed it.“
Under Chubb in 2019, in Rookie ball, Pages hit .298 with 19 home runs while posting an OPS of 1.049 with the Raptors. After 2020 got canceled, the talented young outfielder spent 2021 in High A Great Lakes and led all of the Dodgers Minor Leaguers in home runs with 31.Â
Pages has a ton of his power, that’s undebatable, but he has also shown the ability to put together very quality at-bats as well. Here’s what Austin Chubb had to say about Pages offensive game:
He’s the full package! He has the ability to hit for power, and we saw the strikeout rate go down last year as he showed the ability to walk and take the free pass when it’s there. So, I think for him, moving forward, the ability to continue to improve his at-bat quality as he moves up will be the key. But I think we really saw in 2021, the ability to play in that many games and be able to handle that kind of pitching was pretty impressive.
2022 was the first professional season for Pages where he was not managed by Chubb and, although his average was down at .236, he still hit 26 home runs and posted OPS of .804. He has improved on those numbers, however, with a great showing in the Arizona Fall League where he is hitting .286 with 4 home runs and an OPS of .855.
Despite the power, Pages says his goal as a hitter is to be a great hitter first.Â
“I always try to be a great hitter first, and I don’t try to hit home runs. I just try to hit the ball hard every time I go to the plate. If I hit the ball hard, then the home runs will come, but the focus is to be a great hitter first. “
Versatility
The Dodgers love to create versatility in their prospects during their time in the Minor Leagues by playing them at multiple positions, and Pages is no different. Pages has shown the athletic ability, foot speed, and instincts to be able to handle Center Field, but is most likely going to profile as a corner outfielder as he continues to progress. Here are some more comments from Chubb on where Pages profiles defensively.
I think for him just continuing to get game reps in the outfield is going to be key. We’re talking about a plus arm and he can move pretty good and he can run. I personally think he’ll be a corner guy at the big league level, but we’ve put him in center field some for his development, just so he can play all 3 spots and he can hold his own out there. He gets good reads off the bat and has the ability to impact the game with his arm, so I think he’s going to be good defensively in the future.
Intangibles
Pages has grown from being a very raw 17 year old in the DSL to a much more polished player that we are seeing in the AFL. He has learned how to handle the everyday grind that the game of baseball presents, and has become very professional in handling his everyday duties. Here is Chubb commenting on Pages again:
I’ve had the chance to be around some Major League guys and they have what we call the “it” factor”, and Andy has that with his quality of swings and level of focus towards his offense. He is a guy that you can trust and put out there everyday because the quality of work he puts in every day is really pro.
When asked how Pages has handled all of the attention that has come with becoming such a highly rated prospect, here is what Chubb said:
You know, Andy is the same guy as he has always been which is a very humble guy. He does have some flash in the field sometimes, but, his teammates absolutely love him, and he’s a good clubhouse guy. He’s always had a level of swag and confidence and that hasn’t changed at all because he knows he’s good, but he is very, very humble.
Feature Cut
Pages hit 31 home runs in 2021 with High A Great Lakes, which led all of the Dodgers Minor Leagues, then hit 26 this year in 2022. He has averaged hitting a home run every 15 at-bats during his career to this point, and, coming into this past year, averaged hitting more than twice as many flyballs as he does ground balls.
So he knows how to hit the ball hard, and he knows how to get it in the air, and when you combine that with his lifetime pull % that is above 50% it has led to his big power numbers.
Here is a picture of Pages right after contact that illustrates the kind of angles he creates with his body that creates the loft in his swing. 
To create the kind of angles Pages creates takes an incredible amount of flexibility and athletic ability, which is why he has such a high ceiling offensively. It’s also why, although having a pull % above 50% and a flyball to ground ball ratio that is more than 2 to 1 is not ideal, it has and will continue to work for him as long as he continues to have the athletic ability and flexibility needed to create these kinds of angles with his body.
Pages certainly has good loft in his swing, as his flyball-to-ground ball ratio shows, but he doesn’t do it by having an excessive amount of lift. Although many times, loft is created by lift in a swing, it is not with Pages, which is a rare trait that should lead to continued power combined with rock-solid consistency.
Pages has the ability to carry a team offensively and completely take games over as evidenced by his incredible performance on July 30th of 2021 where he hit 2 home runs, had 10 total bases, 5 RBIs, and led the Loons to a 5-4 victory.Â
He had games very similar to that in 2022 as well, especially toward the latter part of the season.
The guy I compare him to is Jay Buhner.
Buhner started more open and didn’t have the high leg kick during the loading process, but they are very similar, if not identical, in how they use their bodies to create loft in their swing. Not only are these 2 similar in mechanics, but they are also very similar in approach. Their K percentages are similar, their BB% are almost identical, their batting averages on Balls in Play are almost identical, and their home run per at-bat rate is very similar as well.
Pages has the ability to affect the game on the defensive side of the ball as well as he can play all 3 outfield positions, has good speed, gets good jumps, and has a plus arm.
Finishing Up
Pages was signed at the extremely young age of 16, so although he has already played in 4 seasons over a 5-year time span, he is still just 21 years old. He will, most likely, spend time in AAA next year, so, not only is he super talented, but he is also somewhat ahead of the curve and getting very close to the MLB level.
His estimated arrival in the MLB could be as soon as next year as long as he stays healthy, so 2023 will be a big year for him as he continues to grow and expand his already elite set of skills.
One of the big hot-button topics for the Dodgers this post-season is whether or not they will exercise their club option for Justin Turner. The Dodgers have until 5 days after the conclusion of the World Series to decide whether they want to pick up the $16,000,000 option for 2023 or allow him to become a Free Agent.
Average Salary?
If the Dodgers choose to pick up Turner’s 16,000,000 option, it would make him the 7th highest paid 3rd baseman in the game behind Anthony Rendon, Nolan Arenado, Manny Machado, Alex Bregman, Josh Donaldson, and Yoan Moncada. Of the guys on that list, Turner outperformed all of them this year in batting average other than Machado and Arenado. But, even with Turner’s last 2 playoff performances that haven’t been good, he has still been better than both Machado and Arenado as a lifetime playoff hitter.
Alex Bregman and Manny Machado are the only 2 third basemen that had a higher OPS in 2022 than Turner, but neither has been anywhere near as good of a playoff performer in their careers as Justin Turner has been.Â
Jose Ramirez had the best year of any 3rd baseman in 2022 hitting .280 with an OPS of .869 and then backing it up by hitting .333 with an OPS of .844 in the postseason this year. But, Turner has still outperformed him overall in the postseason for a career.
Turner also had a better year this year than D.J. Lemahieu and has outperformed Lemahieu overall in his career in the playoffs when you combine both batting average and OPS.Â
Austin Riley had a slightly better year than Turner hitting 2 points higher and posting an OPS 58 points higher, but he hit .067 in the playoffs this year and is a lifetime .216 hitter for the post-season with an OPS of .591.Â
As crazy as it sounds when you put the whole formula together, that combines both the regular season and playoffs, Justin Turner could still easily be considered to be the best offensive 3rd baseman in the game while being paid 7th highest. So, although 16.000,000 is a lot, everything is relative and Turner has proven that he is worth it, plus some.Â
Candidates to Replace Turner
If the Dodgers decide to not pick up Turner’s 16,000,000 option, it would have to be assumed that they will stay in-house and save money. The reason is, if they are looking to spend at that position, Turner is the best option, so it wouldn’t make sense to spend on someone else that would be, at best, a lateral move, and, most likely, a downgrade.
So, who are the “in-house” options?
Miguel Vargas
 Despite the fact that Vargas hit just .170 in his 47 MLB at-bats in 2022, he definitely has a great hit tool, and one that the club is very high on.Â
But, the question with him is defense.
Vargas fielded .919 at 3rd base this year with OKC, and fielded .924 in 2021, so his defense is a work in progress. He definitely has every skill he needs to be a good defender in the future, but the Dodgers have the pieces in place to win now. So it would be interesting to see if the Club would be willing to show patience and give Vargas the on-the-job training he needs on a club that will be favored to win the World Series.Â
It would be a decision based on projection.
Vargas, in my opinion, projects to be a very good MLB hitter that will continue to get better defensively as he gets more and more comfortable at the hot corner. If the Dodgers were building and felt as if they were a year or 2 away from contending, it would be a no-brainer, but this club is poised to win now, so making a move like this would be a risk.
Edwin Rios is another option at 3rd base as well if Turner doesn’t return. Rios, as we all know, has a world of power and hit .244 with an OPS of .793 in his 86 MLB at bats in 2022, but he also struck outÂ
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