The Dodgers scored 2 runs in the first inning, then 3 in the third, then held on to beat the Padres for the 15th time in 20 games in 2022. The Dodgers took a 1-0 lead in the best of 5 NLDS series, and need to win just 2 of the remaining 4 games to advance to the NLCS. Tonight’s pitching matchup is Yu Darvish vs. Clayton Kershaw, so it will be epic, and we’re going to break down the matchup on today’s edition of Dodger Daily. But, before we do that, let’s take a look back at the highlights from last night.
Dodgers win 5-3 to take a 1-0 Lead in the Series
Trea Turner got the scoring started for the 2022 post-season. Turner hit .298 and had 100 RBIs in the regular season, and you can make that 101 for the year now. Turner was hitting .296 off of Clevinger coming into last night.
Julio Urias did a good job of pitching backward in the early innings but got touched for 3 runs in the 5th inning, but the bullpen held up and gave him the win. Urias throws his slurve 33% of the time and lands it in the zone 60% of the time, and it helped him cruise all the way up until the 5th.
The Padres starter Mike Clevinger only lands his slider in the strike zone 40% of the time, and his 4-seam has a 50% hard-hit rate. The Dodgers were simply a terrible matchup for him and he went just 2.2 innings giving up 4 earned runs and 6 hits.
Broken record! Will Smith and Trea Turner laid off the slider and 2-seam in the 3rd inning, then got very hittable fastballs and hanging sliders and did some damage. Both Smith and Turner went 2 for 4 on the night each with an RBI.
It was an interesting decision for the Padres to burn Stephen Wilson. He hadn’t given up a run in 8.1 innings and had 10 strikeouts against the Dodgers coming into last night, and improved on those numbers by shutting the Dodgers down in his 2 innings. Down 4-0, it was very risky knowing the odds favored losing the game and him for Wednesday all in one game, something of which happened.
Evan Phillips posted a 1.14 ERA on the year, a WHIP of 0.76, and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 5 to 1. He had an ERA of 0.90 and 12 strikeouts in 10 appearances against the Padres in his career coming into tonight. After allowing the first two hitters on base, he blanked the Padres in his 1 inning of work. It feels like the 3 outs he got were the biggest outs in the game.
The Padres bullpen blanked the Dodgers for the last 6.1 innings, with guys that, other than Wilson, don’t usually have a lot of success against the Dodgers. But, it was too little too late and the Dodgers had already built a 5-0 lead by the time the Padres bullpen entered the game.
Alex Vesia got 5 huge outs for the Dodgers and held the lead in the back half of the game. Vesia has an ERA of 0.00 and 16 strikeouts in 12 innings versus the Padres in his career. He has allowed just 1 earned run in his last 27 outings and has an average against of just .130 against lefties.
Chris Martin collected his first post-season save last night by getting the last 3 outs to clinch game 1 for the Dodgers. Martin had an ERA of 6.75 and 12 strikeouts in 12 innings against the Padres in his career coming into last night but cruised through the 9th stress-free. He has not allowed an earned run in 12 straight outings.
Tomorrow’s Matchup
There is no time to celebrate for the Dodgers, as Yu Darvish takes the mound for the Padres and will pose a very big challenge for the Boys in Blue. The tide has turned though, as Tuesday’s game was a must-win for the Dodgers, and now, Game 2 on Wednesday has become a must-win for the Padres. Here is the preview for tonight’s matchup for Game 2.
Yu Darvish
Darvish is a 36-year-old former Dodger that is with his 4th club and is having the 3rd best season of his career in terms of ERA, and the best season of his career in terms of WHIP. Darvish has a lifetime ERA of 3.50, a WHIP of 1.13, and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.73 to 1. He has outperformed every one of those statistical measures in 2022 posting a 3.10 ERA, a WHIP of just 0.95, and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 5.32 to 1.
Dodgers fans might have a lasting impression based on his 2017 performance as a Dodger where he struggled giving up 10 runs in 14 innings during the post-season of that year, which was on the heels of 2016 where he struggled in the playoffs of that year as well with the Rangers. But,, in the other 3 seasons he has had the chance to pitch in the playoffs he has been very good, most recently being in 2020 with the Cubs, then in the Divisional series this year where he beat the Mets by going 7 and giving up just 1 run while recording 4 strikeouts and walking no one.
Darvish Against the Dodgers
Darvish has faced the Dodgers 3 times this year and 6 times total in his career, most recently on September 2nd. His worst outing against the Dodgers was the first time he faced L.A. in July when he gave up 5 runs and 8 hits in 6 innings pitched. But his last 2 outings have been good, and in his last outing on September 2nd he blanked the Dodgers in 7 innings and struck out 9 while walking just 2. So, he has recent success against the Boys in Blue and certainly has the motivation to prove to his former team that his performance in the 2017 playoffs was a fluke and not the standard.
Feature Cut
Darvish offers 6 pitches and throws his cutter the most followed by his 4-seam, and one of, if not the main aspect that makes him tough to hit is that he is not heavily reliant on one pitch. That makes him hard to game plan for and makes it hard for hitters to sit on a certain pitch because he only throws his cutter, the pitch he throws the most, 35% of the time. His cutter sits at 86-87 and records a whiff rate of 25%, and hard hit % of 36%, so the pitch can be hard to barrel, and sometimes hard to hit in the first place. You can expect the Dodgers to get a heavy dose of cutters tonight.
Fastball and 2-Seam Sinker
Darvish will feature both a 4-seam and a 2-seam fastball that both sit at 95 MPH. His 4-seam is his 2nd favorite pitch as he throws it 24% of the time, and then he’ll sprinkle in an couple handfuls of his 2-seam sinkers a game. His 4-seam has a whiff rate of 22% and a hard hit % of 46%, so the Dodgers will look to be aggressive on this pitch and force Darvish to land everything else in the zone to have success, something of which he is capable of doing.
Slider
Darvish uses his slider more than any other secondary pitch other than his cutter and throws it 19% of the time time. It sits 82-83 and has a hard hit rate of 33%, a whiff rate of 27%, and lands in the zone more than 50% of the time, so he forces hitters to have to swing at it and plays the odds which are in his favor that hitters won’t hit the pitch hard.
Curveball
Darvish will throw 7-10 split-finger fastballs and a handful of curveballs a game and does a decent job landing them for strikes. He has thrown his curveball in the zone almost 50% of the time, so, like his slider, hitters have to be ready to swing at this pitch and when they do they only make hard contact about 7% of the time, so, at 80-82, it is a very effective pitch when he does throw it. As would be expected, he has the hardest time controlling his split-finger of any pitch he throws, so to get it to land in the zone he has to choke up on the pitch and that makes it very hittable as evidenced by the fact that hitters have made hard hit contact on his split-finger almost 40% of the time.
Clayton Kershaw
Clayton Kershaw is a Hall of Famer who had a Hall of Fame kind of year although he fell below the threshold to be considered a qualified player which means his stats are not applied to the statistical leaders in the league. Kershaw posted a 2.28 ERA, which, if he qualified, would be tied for the 2nd best ERA in the National League and would be tied for 5th best in all of baseball. As an example of just how great Kershaw has been, as good as his ERA was this year, it is the 6th best he has posted in his illustrious 15-year career. He also posted a WHIP of just 0.94 which would be best in the National League and 2nd best in the MLB behind only Justin Verlander. Kershaw also posted a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 5.6 to 1 and had an average against of just .208 which would be 6th best in the NL if he qualified.
Kershaw against the Padres
Kershaw featured 5 pitches in 2022, and is one of the rare pitchers that don’t throw the fastball the highest percentage of the time. His slider has become his go-to pitch as he throws it 43% of the time which is 3% higher than his fastball and 26% more than any other pitch he throws. His curveball, which used to be his go-to secondary pitch, gets thrown just 16% of the time, and then he’ll throw about 1 sinker and 1 changeup on average per game.
Keys to the Game
The keys for the Dodgers are, like last night, to lay off the secondary stuff out of the zone, then hunt the 4-seam fastball and be very aggressive against that pitch. Darvish has the ability to land his secondary pitches in the zone, so the cat and mouse game will be, when the Dodgers don’t swing at his off-speed stuff, does it end up as a strike. If it does, Darvish will have a great deal of success, but, if he doesn’t land his secondaries he will find himself in the same position as Clevinger found himself last night.
For Clayton Kershaw it will be business a usual as he will throw his slider to the backfoot, then try to locate his 4-seam down in the zone and on the outside corners. If he is able to do that, the Padres will end up swinging at a bunch of pitches that are not in the zone, and Kershaw will roll. If he is not able to locate his 4-seam, the Padres will be more selective on his slider and take that pitch more and they will give Kershaw problems in that scenario. It promises to be a whole lot of fun, and it’s going to be hard to wait until 5:37 P.M. Pacific.
