The Dodgers continued to struggle with runners in scoring position going just 1 for 10, and could muster just 1 run and got beat in the swing game of the NLDS and are now 1 loss away from packing the bats. To say the last 2 games have been disappointing would be a fairly large understatement, as after winning game 1 it looked as if it was going to be business as usual again. The 1-4 hitters, Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, Freddie Freeman, and Will Smith, went a combined 2 for 14 and the Padres bullpen still hasn’t given up a run in this series. The Dodgers are down, but they are not out, and they have to figure out a way to pick themselves up by the bootstraps and get gritty to win the next 2 games. Having said that, if the Dodgers win tonight, they will again have the advantage in the series, but that’s a big “if” so let’s break it down and figure out what has to happen to win the next two games.

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Joe Musgrove

Joe Musgrove is going to get the ball for the Padres and he is 0-6 with an ERA of 4.04 and has 50 strikeouts in 49 innings versus the Dodgers in his career. He’s given up 46 hits in those 49 innings and has a strikeout-to-walk ratio of a little over 2 to 1. Musgrove features 6 pitches, and, much like Darvish, is very unpredictable in terms of which pitch he will throw at any given time. His slider and 4-seam fastball are his 2 favorite pitches, but he only throws them both 24% of the time, so, again, hitters can’t just sit on any one given pitch. His next 2 favorite pitches are his cutter and curveball which he throws 19% of the time, then he sprinkles in a handful or so of 2-Seam sinkers and changeups each game.

Musgrove has definitely been a strike thrower this year as he has only averaged close to 2 walks per 9 innings this year and throws his top 3 pitches for strikes better than 50% of the time, and his 4th pitch, his curveball lands in the zone real close to 50% of the time. So, the data would suggest that he is going to force the Dodgers to hit their way on, and hit their way to victory, something they have not done so far in this series. But, sitting at 92-93 with his fastball, and with the positive track record so many Dodgers have had against Musgrove, the Dodgers have a good chance at having a good night in San Diego. Let’s hope that happens.

Tyler Anderson

Tyler Anderson is taking the mound for the first time in the post-season as a Dodger and is tasked with stopping a whole bunch of momentum that the Padres are going to be bringing into tonight’s game. Anderson has an ERA of 2.36 lifetime against the Padres and has 67 strikeouts while giving up 72 hits in 87.2 innings in his career against San Diego. He has given up just 3 earned runs in 24 innings in 2022 against the Padres as well, so he has had success in this series, and will need to come up big to get the tide turned.

Anderson is a 5-pitch pitcher who is very balanced between his fastball and off-speed as he throws his 4-seam just 38% of the time. He is not only balanced in changing speeds but he is also balanced between the secondary pitches he throws as well. He features 4 off-speed pitches and throws his changeup and curveball the exact same amount of the time at 32%, then he’ll throw about 20-25 cutters a game on average, then will sprinkle in a handful or so of sinkers as well. Anderson is the master of changing speed and keeping hitters off-balance, and, with the added energy that playoff games present, that aspect of his game should play well.

Dodgers Lineup

The Dodgers will have 4 players in their lineup tonight that has a lifetime average over .300 against Musgrove, and 2 that are over .400. They will also have 3 players that have an on-base % over .500 and another in Freeman who is .480, so the data would suggest that the Dodgers have a good chance at finally getting their offense going, something they have not done to this point. Mookie Betts showed some life last night and has had success in the past against Musgrove, so I think he is primed to have a  big night tonight inside Petco Park. Justin Turner has been stumbling in the past 2 postseasons, and tonight stands to be a big opportunity for him to break out and start hitting the ball again. He looks like he is pressing at the plate, which is totally understandable, so hopefully, he can relax and hit the way we have become accustomed to seeing him hit. The Dodgers have built innings against the Padres, but then have not cashed in once the runners were in place to score, but looking at the consistent success L.A. has had against Musgrove, that could change tonight, and it must if this 111-win club wants to advance.

Padres Lineup

If Josh Bell is in the lineup, which I don’t think he will be, the Padres would have 4 guys in their lineup that have a lifetime average against Anderson of under .200. Then Soto is just .214, Myers is just .208 and Grisham is just .222, so, on paper, that data leans heavily in the Dodgers favor. But, we all know that things don’t always play out as the data would suggest, so the Dodgers still have to do it on the field. I think Azocar will be the DH in place of Bell, and Kim will get moved back to the leadoff spot for the Padres.

Final Thoughts

The Padres beat the Mets, then have beaten the Dodgers in back-to-back games, and have a chance to clinch this series on their home field in San Diego in front of fans that are hungry, to say the least. All of those factors give a facade of the situation being rather dire for the Dodgers, but, finding the 3rd win without Darvish or Snell was always going to be a chore, and would be a task that defeats the odds, so, just know that the Dodgers are still fine as long as they pick their level of play up. The data shows tonight, and will show tomorrow, that the Dodgers are the favorites to win both games, and, intangibles excluded, by quite a bit. So, the key is, can the Dodgers remove the variables from the equation and just simply make it about baseball, and use the odds to their favor and win the last two games? That’s a question that we will find part I of that answer to tonight at 6:37 inside Petco Park. It’s gonna be crazy, it promises to be a whole lot of fun, an d hopefully the Dodgers can make the Padres fans go home “Blue”, again, and move this series back to L.A.

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