The Dodger’s 111-win season came to an abrupt ending Saturday night as a 5-run inning by the Padres was too much to overcome and ended what was an otherwise historic season. It was a shocker and an ending that will take a while to absorb as Dodgers fans try to figure out “what went wrong”.

Game 1

The Dodgers got off to a great start scoring 2 in the bottom of the first inning to open up the series against the Padres in Game 1.  Trea Turner got the scoring started with his first post-season home run as a Dodger, followed by a Will Smith double, then after an RBI by Max Muncy, the Dodgers had a quick 2-0 lead. 

The Dodgers added 3 more in the bottom of the third on doubles by Trea Turner and Will Smith, and a fielding error by Will Myers. 

At that point, it looked like more of the same in terms of dominance by the Dodgers in this series, but San Diego answered back with 3 in the top of the 5th, and, little did we know at the time, that would be a precursor of things to come.

Lineup

The Dodgers chose Trayce Thompson to start and play in left field, and although he went just 2 for 13 (.153) in the series, he walked 3 times and had an OBP of .333, and played good defense. 

Chris Taylor went 0-7 in the series and didn’t play a regular season game after September 30, and Joey Gallo hit below .200 in every month this season and finished 2022 with 160 strikeouts, so Thompson was the best choice, which is also why he started all 3 games.

Pitching

Dave Roberts took Julio Urias out after the 5th inning, but with a pitch count of just 79 pitches. With Buehler and May dealing with an injury this year, Urias took the reigns and became the Dodger’s clear #1 pitcher, so taking him out with a pitch count that low was not automatic. 

Evan Phillips had some drama but eventually induced a double play from Will Myers to get through the 6th unscratched. 

Phillips has been dominant this year, so to use him in the middle innings instead of in the closer role took some planning and it may have saved the game because, although Phillips didn’t record the last 3 outs, he very well might have recorded the 3 most important. 

Credit Roberts and the plan put forth by the organization for the successful result in this situation.

Alex Vesia came in behind Phillips and threw a clean 7th, then got the first 2 outs of the 8th before Brusdar Graterol was brought in to get Manny Machado, something of which he did, so that move worked as well. 

Machado had been 3 for 8 for a lifetime against Graterol and had only one at-bat in his career against Vesia, so this decision had either no data or negative data behind it, so give Roberts credit for pulling this trigger.

Chris Martin then got the last 3 outs in the ninth and the Dodgers won 5-3 and took a 1-0 lead in the series which, as stated earlier, set a tone for “business as usual”.

 Game 2

In the breakdown and preview of Game 2, it was warned how difficult of a matchup Yu Darvish was going to be with his 6 pitches and the way he stays unpredictable, and that, unfortunately, proved to be the case.

 The Dodgers had a 3-2 lead after the 3rd inning but didn’t score again and lost 5-3 to tie the series up at 1-1.

Lineup

The Dodgers used the exact same lineup for Game 2 as they did for Game 1 and there was no reason to doubt it at the time as it led the Dodgers to a win and a 1-0 lead in the series. 

The biggest offensive decision of the game was to pinch-hit Austin Barnes for Cody Bellinger which proved to be, unquestionably, the right move by Dave Roberts. 

In his pinch-hit at-bat, Barnes hit the ball 98 mph with a launch angle of 35 degrees, and balls that are hit with that combination of exit velocity and launch angle have an average of .273 and a 23% chance of becoming a home run.  So, although Barnes’s ball didn’t end up as a hit, it was an excellent result for a pinch-hit situation. 

Chris Taylor was the other option to use in that situation, and, considering how he did in the series, it’s clear that Roberts chose the right guy in Barnes.

Pitching Moves

Clayton Kershaw was pulled after the 5th inning having given up 3 runs and 6 hits in favor of Brusdar Graterol who threw a scoreless inning. Yency Almonte and Tommy Kahnle both threw scoreless innings as well, but Blake Treinen gave up a home run in the 8th. 

The only low-lying fruit might be possibly throwing Treinen into a close game in the playoffs after logging just 5 innings total in the regular season, but with his track record, it’s not a move that should have been questioned, especially considering that the Dodgers didn’t score again anyways, so his 1 run wasn’t the difference. 

I don’t think many if any, Dodgers fans were up in arms about Treinen making the post-season roster, and with that being the case, combined with his track record, this was not a move to question, and if it is, it is through hindsight, which is always 20/20.

Game 3

After going 1 for 7 in the first 2 games of the NLDS, Cody Bellinger was replaced by Chris Taylor who is a lifetime .250 hitter in the playoffs with an OPS of .816. He also hit .351 in the 2021 postseason last year, so, there was good logic backed by data to make this move.

Pinch Hitting Barnes

As mentioned earlier, one of the most criticized decisions of the entire series was Roberts’s decision to pinch-hit Austin Barnes in Game 2 instead of Chris Taylor. 

If the 98-mile-per-hour ball that Barnes hit wasn’t enough to convince you that the correct decision was made in that instance, then surely Barnes’s  2-2 night in Game 3 did. 

Although the Dodgers scored just 1 run, it wasn’t Barnes’s fault as he was the best offensive player the Dodgers had in Game 3.

Starting Gonsolin

Another decision that has come under heavy fire is Starting Tony Gonsolin instead of Tyler Anderson or Andrew Heaney, so let’s break down that decision.

First, a bullpen game was going to happen whether it was going to be in game 3 or game 4, so, to have that bullpen game the day after the off-day guaranteed that every bullpen arm was available, and, as a result, the Dodgers only gave up 2 runs total in the game. Gonsolin struggled, and the Dodgers gave up a run in the first inning, but, after 3 innings, the score was just 1-0, and I use that 3 inning mark for a reason.

Bullpen Game

Andrew Heaney was solid in the piggyback role. but he too also gave up a run in his 3rd full inning, so, if he had started, the score would still have been 1-0 after 3 innings, and Gonsolin would not have pitched yet. The Dodgers would not have had Heaney on top of Gonsolin and Heaney has had the most success of any Dodgers pitcher in his career against the Padres, so, to put him behind Gonsolin, a wildcard of sorts, due to his time off due to injury, proved to be a great decision and one that worked. 

Heaney was able to put out Gonsolin’s fire which, as the success that Heaney has had against the Padres shows, was not a fluke. 

Yency Almonte, Alex Vesia, Evan Phillips, and Tommy Kahnle combined to blank the Padres for the last 4 innings, but the Dodgers couldn’t score, and that is why they lost.

For those that think Anderson should have started this game, the data disagrees. 

The Dodgers gave up fewer runs in the opener/piggyback/bullpen game in Game 3 than they did in Anderson’s game he started in Game 4, so the plan to make the bullpen game the day after the off-day proved to be the correct decision. 

We’ll get into the decision to pull Anderson in our Game 4 discussion.

Game  4

Chris Taylor started for the 2nd game in a row, which, again, with his past post-season heroics, shouldn’t be a decision Dodgers fans are at odds with in any way.

 After having a very good pinch-hit at-bat in Game 2, then going 2-2 in Game 3, Austin Barnes did not start Game 4, something which leaves the door open to criticism, but, to leave Barnes in, Will Smith would have had to have been moved to the DH, which means Justin Turner would have played 3rd and ultimately means that one or the other between Max Muncy and Gavin Lux would not have been in the lineup.

Joe Musgrove was the Game 4 starter for the Padres and Muncy has a lifetime average against him of .429 with an OPS of 1.285. Lux was 0-2 against Musgrove coming into the game which isn’t enough of a sample size to analyze but hit .280 against right-handers in 2022 with an on-base percentage of .351. Compare that to Barnes who had 0 past history against Musgrove and a .230 average against right-handers and an on-base % of .323, and I think, at the most, this decision could be viewed as 6 one way and half dozen the other. 

But with the hindsight of knowing that Lux went 0-4, it makes it easy to favor playing Barnes in Game. 4.

Okay, sit back, grab some popcorn, and let’s talk about pulling Tyler Anderson.

Pulling Anderson

Coming into Game 4, Anderson had an ERA of 2.36 lifetime against the Padres and had 67 strikeouts while giving up just 72 hits in 87.2 innings in his career against San Diego. He had given up just 3 earned runs in 24 innings in 2022 against the Padres as well, so he had had success in this series, and came up big in Game 4.

That is until he was pulled!

Modern-day analytics suggest that it is not wise to allow a pitcher to face an offensive lineup the 3rd time through. I understand that, and I don’t disagree with that idea as a whole, but, there are times when analytics need to be thrown out the window and the good ole’ eyeball test needs to be applied, and this was one of those instances.

Anderson had a history of success against the Padres, he was cruising, and his pitch count was such that he could have gone 1, 2, and possibly 3 more innings. And, in the playoffs, in my opinion, you have to ride the hot hand, something he had both in his career against the Padres and in that particular game as well.

I disagreed with this decision in real-time, so my opinion was not developed from second-guessing, it was developed using both data and the eye test in real-time.

Kahnle

Some have criticized the decision to bring in Tommy Kahnle, and that is a stance of hindsight, because, even if you feel as I do, that Anderson should have been left in, Kahnle had been lights out. Kahnle allowed just 1 earned run in 9 outings since returning on September 14th, then didn’t allow a run in Game 2 or Game  3.

So, there was no reason not to have confidence that he would come in and get his 3 outs and pass the ball to the next guy.

Overall Thoughts

Whether you agree or disagree with any of the above, I think we should all agree that the Dodgers lost this series because they didn’t score enough. The Dodgers scored just 10 runs in 4 games and went 3 for 27 with runners in scoring position in the 3 losses.

This was not a situation, in my opinion, to point fingers because, from an offensive perspective, it was a collective effort.

Of course, any time a team loses a game, a series, or a big event that they were favored in, in this case heavily, the manager is going to take a lot of heat, and that’s just part of choosing a profession that puts you in that kind of spotlight. But, other than pulling Anderson, there weren’t any other decisions that either didn’t work or didn’t make sense that Roberts made, so the criticism towards him is largely just frustration, in my opinion, and not fact-based evaluations of what actually went wrong.

It is what it is, and hopefully, with a healthy Walker Buehler and Dustin May,  and some adjustments to the roster, the outcome will be different next year.

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