One of the big hot-button topics for the Dodgers this post-season is whether or not they will exercise their club option for Justin Turner. The Dodgers have until 5 days after the conclusion of the World Series to decide whether they want to pick up the $16,000,000 option for 2023 or allow him to become a Free Agent.

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Average Salary?

If the Dodgers choose to pick up Turner’s $16,000,000 option, it would make him the 7th highest paid 3rd baseman in the game behind Anthony Rendon, Nolan Arenado, Manny Machado, Alex Bregman, Josh Donaldson, and Yoan Moncada. Of the guys on that list, Turner outperformed all of them this year in batting average other than Machado and Arenado. But, even with Turner’s last 2 playoff performances that haven’t been good, he has still been better than both Machado and Arenado as a lifetime playoff hitter.

Alex Bregman and Manny Machado are the only 2 third basemen that had a higher OPS in 2022 than Turner, but neither has been anywhere near as good of a playoff performer in their careers as Justin Turner has been.

Jose Ramirez had the best year of any 3rd baseman in 2022 hitting .280 with an OPS of .869 and then backing it up by hitting .333 with an OPS of .844 in the postseason this year. But, Turner has still outperformed him overall in the postseason for a career.

Turner also had a better year this year than D.J. Lemahieu and has outperformed Lemahieu overall in his career in the playoffs when you combine both batting average and OPS.

Austin Riley had a slightly better year than Turner hitting 2 points higher and posting an OPS 58 points higher, but he hit .067 in the playoffs this year and is a lifetime .216 hitter for the post-season with an OPS of .591.

As crazy as it sounds when you put the whole formula together, that combines both the regular season and playoffs, Justin Turner could still easily be considered the best offensive 3rd baseman in the game while being paid 7th highest.

So, although $16.000,000 is a lot, everything is relative and Turner has proven that he is worth it, still.

Candidates to Replace Turner

If the Dodgers decide not to pick up Turner’s $16,000,000 option, it would have to be assumed that they will stay in-house and save money. The reason is, if they are looking to spend at that position, Turner is the best option, so it wouldn’t make sense to spend on someone else that would be, at best, a lateral move, and, most likely, a downgrade.

So, who are the “in-house” options?

Miguel Vargas

Vargas was the AA hitting champion in 2021 posting an average of .319 for the AA Tulsa Drillers, and he backed that up by hitting .304 in 2022 with an OPS of .915. The guy can hit, and, the organization is very high on his hit tool, and even tried him some in the outfield this year to give him some versatility.

Despite the fact that Vargas hit just .170 in his 47 MLB at-bats in 2022, he definitely has a very good hit tool, and one that the club is very high on.

But, the question with him is defense.

Vargas fielded .919 at 3rd base this year with OKC, and fielded .924 in 2021, so his defense is a work in progress. He definitely has every skill he needs to be a good defender in the future, but the Dodgers have the pieces in place to win now. So it would be interesting to see if the Club would be willing to show patience and give Vargas the on-the-job training he needs on a club that will be favored to win the World Series.

It would be a decision based on projection.

Vargas, in my opinion, projects to be a very good MLB hitter that will continue to get better defensively as he gets more and more comfortable at the hot corner. If the Dodgers were building and felt as if they were a year or 2 away from contending, it would be a no-brainer, but this club is poised to win now, so making a move like this would be a bold show of confidence in what the club thinks Vargas is capable of next year.

Edwin Rios would be the most experienced option at 3rd base if Turner doesn’t return. Rios is a 28-year-old, who, as we all know, has a world of power, but also has quite a bit of swing-and-miss. He hit .244 with an OPS of .793 in his 86 MLB at-bats in 2022 and is a lifetime .219 hitter at the MLB level. He was not given a roster spot for the postseason as well, so to turn over the hot corner to Rios while letting Justin Turner walk would be another bold projection of the production the club thinks they would get from Rios in 2023.

Andy Burns would be the next most experienced third baseman in the system, and guys like Devin Mann have the versatility to play 3rd as well. Kody Hoese had periods last year where it looked like his offense was ready to reach its potential, but he finished 2022 in AA and is still a year away.

Free Agency or Trade Route

If the Dodgers wanted to make a trade or hit the Free Agency market, they might as well just keep Justin Turner and consider his deal a 1 year Free Agency deal. Turner, by many, if not most metrics, could still be considered a better offensive player than anyone the Dodgers could go get, so the club might as well just pick up Turner’s option vs. bringing in someone else and paying Free Agency dollars. Plus, he is a leader off the field as well and leads the way in terms of “culture”, and that is a big factor with the Dodgers.

All factors considered, this is a no-brainer in my opinion. Justin Turner needs to be back in a Dodgers uniform in 2023.

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