Trea Turner became a Free Agent last week so many Dodgers fans are left to wonder what might happen with that position. In today’s article, we are going to cover the in-house options for next year and a couple of trade options that have hit the rumor mill.Â
Click to watch the Podcast that Covers All the Different Options at Shortstop
Make a Splash
If the Dodgers decide to make a splash, one of the biggest names being thrown around is Dansby Swanson. Swanson hit .277 last year which was the 7th best of all shortstops in the MLB and his OPS of .776 was the 6th best. He also posted a fielding % of .986 in 2022 which was 2nd best in all of the MLB only behind Miguel Rojas who fielded .987.Â
Swanson is clearly in his prime, and, at 28, he’s going to want to get paid accordingly.Â
MLB.com reported that Swanson turned down $100 million dollars from the Braves and is rumored to be looking for a deal somewhere in the $140 million dollar range.Â
Any move the Dodgers make is going to be with the idea of positioning themselves to win a World Series. As we learned this year, the Dodgers can win a record amount of games in the Regular season, but it’s empty without playoff success. So, to pay the big bucks, the kind of money that will make even the Dodgers blink, it has to be done knowing it will help win a World Series, with someone who has a proven postseason track record.
Swanson hit .125 this past post-season and hit just .224 with an OPS of .607 in the 2021 postseason when the Braves won the World Series. He also posted an OPS of just .607 in 2021 and has a lifetime post-season average of .248 and an OPS of .720.Â
Swanson is a great player and is in his prime, but the question is whether the Dodgers would want to pay $140 million for that postseason track record.Â
Willy Adames is another name that has been thrown around in trade talks, and some have suggested the Dodgers pursue a package that also includes Corbin Burnes. Doug McKain of Dodgers Nation brought the idea up a couple of weeks ago and it seems to have possibly gained some steam.
If I were the Dodgers, I would pursue a trade for Willy Adames. Going to need a trusted defensive shortstop moving forward and rather trade for a SS that you don't have to commit to long-term and use the money for another masher and a starting pitcher.
— Doug McKain (@DMAC_LA) October 27, 2022
That package would require a massive return of some combination of MLB starters and top prospects, which, whatever combination it will be, will be very costly. Â
Adames is another shortstop that should be in his prime as well but hit just .238 in 2022 with an OPS of .756. Adames is just a .194 lifetime hitter for the postseason and his OPS in the playoffs has been .641.Â
Again, any move the Dodgers make has to be done with only one consideration and that is to win the World Series.Â
Adames had a fielding percentage of .973 in 2022 which was 6th best in all of baseball and 13 points higher than his .966 lifetime fielding percentage which indicates that, at 27, he is in his prime.
Adames will make an estimated $9,607,697 in 2023 according to Spotrac, is in his arbitration period, and will become a free agent after the 2024 season.Â
In House
If the Dodgers don’t resign Trea Turner, then don’t make a splash on the Free Agency market, the first option in-house would be Gavin Lux. Lux is a shortstop by trade and has played 2nd base only because the Dodgers have had Corey Seager and Trea Turner.
I have seen Lux play several dozens of games at shortstop and he is good there and much more comfortable than 2nd base. In fact, his lifetime MLB fielding percentage at shortstop is .968 which is better than Adames, and 10 points lower than Swanson’s.Â
Lux hit .276 in 2022 which is substantially higher than Adames and just 1 point lower than Swanson. His OPS of .745 in 2022 was lower than both Swanson and Adames however, and he has only hit .216 so far in the postseason, and, keep in mind, again, the Dodgers are looking for answers for the postseason.
 Lux will not be eligible for free agency until after the 2026 season, so he would provide more length at a substantially lower price than Swanson or Adames. That is significant because the money he would save the club would allow them to go get a top-shelf starter, or an All-Star caliber outfielder if they chose to do so.Â
Prospects
In terms of prospects, the first one that must be discussed is Jacob Amaya. Amaya is a shortstop prospect that is thought of more for his defense and, having seen him play many, many times, I can say he is very good defensively. His lifetime fielding percentage of .964 is 2 points lower than Adames, 4 points lower than Lux, and 14 points lower than Swanson. Here’s a feature cut that will take you all through what Amaya brings to the table.
Amaya has shown the ability to hit for power hitting 30 home runs combined in the last 2 years, but also showed the ability to hit for average at .261 in 2022 and get on base with an on-base percentage of .369.Â
Also, I can tell you that he makes plays on the move very well and is very good at moving to both his left and his right. If you watch the feature cut it will show you this skill in action and details why he is so good at it.
As a 24-year-old prospect, Amaya needs to be given a lot of consideration because, on top of his physical tools, this guy is a leader. He brings a lot of intensity and holds his teammates accountable from a leadership perspective, and these are qualities that the Dodgers dugout could really use. He is all about winning and brings a lot of fire every time he takes the field.
I love watching him play!
Closing
As I have mentioned before, any move that is made needs to be done with the sole purpose of bettering the Dodger’s chances at winning the World Series. And, as we’ve seen, winning the Division hasn’t proven to be the key to doing that. The target needs to be to load up on as many players as possible that have a proven postseason track record and of the candidates listed in this article, none of them check every box in that category.Â
Adames had a good postseason last year, so maybe that is something to hang a hat on, but neither of Swanson’s last 2 postseasons has been good and this year he was downright bad hitting .125 with an OPS of just .364.Â
In essence, Swanson had the exact year the Dodgers as a club had in the sense that he was very good in the regular season, then not good in the post and that is exactly the situation the Dodgers are trying to avoid in the future.Â
Of all the scenarios, either staying in House or getting Adames would make the most sense, but that’s only with the precursor of not knowing exactly what the Brewers would want in return. If the Dodgers have to give up Dustin May or Bobby Miller or someone of that caliber to get him, I’m not sure there is a net gain in that scenario.Â
So, it’s a tough decision to make because it seems like Trea Turner is going to want more length on his contract than the Dodgers are going to want to commit to. The Dodgers already have an excessively long contract with Mookie Betts and, most likely, the only way the Dodgers won’t compete for a World Title every year for the unforeseeable future is if they are paying under-performing players with no way out due to contract length.Â
One thing is for sure, the Dodgers Front Office knows what they are doing and they have every bit of data that will be needed to make a good decision. They are right way more than they are wrong so we’ll see what they choose to do in this situation.
I think you’re right on with the ultimate choices. We’ll get out-bid on Turner. I don’t think the team wants the potential fan backlash with Correa. I like Bogaerts, but he’s nearly 40 points lower BA away from the green monster and what does the new shift rules do to his defensive turn-around? I think defense will factor greatly in their decision. If there is a Dodgers Way under the Friedman era, it’s strong starting pitching, high slugging and OBP on offense, positional flexibility, and strong team defense. Since 2020, the defense hasn’t been as good and I could see the Dodgers re-setting there. Part of why I think Cody gets tendered on Friday.
Of the four, I think I like Adames the best, however, only as a two year stop gap to buy us more time on Amaya or Lux or someone better. Swanson and Adames are just more of the same offensively, and Dodgers have too many three outcome players as it is. What will he cost though? It could get too steep unless Burnes is involved. I think Lux just needs to play. No more platooning and the more reps he gets the smoother he’ll get defensively whether it SS or 2nd. Less thinking, more quick reacting seems to suit him best and can only get that with reps and exposure, and switching to SS might require another learning curve to overcome. Back to Turner, offensively, he’s the best guy providing pop and hit skills, so it seems a no brainer to just pay him what he wants. I just get the feeling they’re saving that next big contract for an even bigger name whether this year or next.
In the end, I’m kind of leaning Amaya, which would be wild. However, the team at times this year trotted out lineups with three guys hitting under the mendoza line. I doubt they want to repeat that, but it shows they’re willing to endure it for the greater good. Amaya might be that guy, but he could be like Barnes defensively for the middle infield and that has great value. Offensively, might not generate much, but working counts and walking have value too.
Great thought! Thanks for sharing! I agree with you on all points and would add that short stop is Lux’s natural position and the position that he feels the most comfortable at. I’ve seen him play SS quite a bit and he looks like a different player there. Much more confident and sure of himself. Amaya is one of the best defensive short stops I’ve seen in a long time. Just gonna be a question what he can add from an offensive perspective.