The Dodgers are well known for reclamation projects on both sides of the ball and now they have scouted and signed their latest project in Right-hander Shelby Miller. Miller is a 6’3 former first-round draft pick that has been in professional baseball since 2009 and has been with 9 other clubs before being picked up by the Dodgers.

 So, the question Dodgers fans might have is, what are the Dodgers getting? 

Today’s article is going to break down exactly the type of pitcher that Miller is and what he might bring to the Dodgers

Contract

It is important to note that the Dodgers signed Miller to a Major League deal so he has to be placed on the 40-man roster. When the Dodgers protected Johnny DeLuca, Michael Busch, Diego Cartaya, and Andy Pages, that filled 35 of the 40 spots, and Kershaw will take one of those spots, so that left 4 spots for trades or free-agent acquisitions. 

Now we know where at least 1 of those spots is going and that is to the recently acquired Shelby Miller.

History

Miller was the Cardinal’s first-round draft pick in 2009 and has been with 9 teams, the Dodgers being his 10th. He was one of the highest-rated prospects in the game as he entered professional baseball and was the Cardinals Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2010, was Baseball America’s number-one prospect from 2009 to 2011, and he also played in the All-Star Futures game in both 2010 and 2011.  

He was also an MLB All-Star in 2015 when he was with the Braves.

The Cardinals traded Miller in the winter of 2014 alongside RHP Tyrell Jenkins for Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden. He was with the Braves for the 2015 season then was traded to the D-Backs the next winter, in 2015 in the deal that sent Dansby Swanson to the Braves. Miller was with the D-Backs for 3 years and posted ERAs of 6.15 in 2016, 4.09 in 2017, and 10.69 in 2018.

 After the 2018 season, he became a Free Agent and signed with Texas but was released by the Rangers after posting an ERA of 8.59. He was then picked up by the Brewers and signed a Minor League Contract and didn’t resurface in the MLB until 2021. 

In Spring Training of 2021, the Cubs signed Miller after his 2nd stint in Free Agency, but then released him in May after he posted a 31.50 ERA in just 2 innings pitched with Chicago. 

The Pirates then signed him out of Free Agency to a Minor League contract and threw him 10.2 innings, a span in which Miller posted a 5.06 ERA.

Miller, once again, became a Free Agent, again, for the 4th time in his career.

The Yankees then picked him up in March of 2022, signed him to a Minor League contract, but then released him in May making Miller a Free Agent for the 5th time. He was then picked up by the Giants last year and posted a 6.43 ERA in 7 innings. 

So, as you can tell, Miller started out very hot, then got bounced around quite a bit, and is looking to redefine his career with an organization, the Dodgers, that has become known as the organization that defines that process. 

So, what do the Dodgers see in this 32-year-old?

That’s the question I’m going to attempt to answer in the next section.

Miller Time?

Miller is long and lanky and has featured as many as 6 pitches in his career, but was listed by Statcast data as having just thrown his slider and 4-seam last year. He had a 3 pitch mix in 2021 when he was still throwing his cutter, and he has also thrown a curveball, sinker, and changeup at some point in his career as well.

So the Dodgers have options with him in terms of his pitch mix, and if past history plays any role, it’s a good bet that the Dodgers will try and bring back either his changeup or sinker to give him a right turn to his mix.

At 6’3 225 Miller is big and has great reach and extension so his perceived velocity to the hitter is quite a bit faster than the mph registered on the radar. He also has the potential to shape a left turn with his slider, a right turn with his sinker or changeup, and can ride the top of the zone with his 4 seam, so he fits the Dodgers formula.

The same formula that transformed Yency Almonte and Evan Phillips, and now, hopefully, Shelby Miller.

Combinations

Miller likes to use different combinations to get hitters out. He is very good at nailing either his 4-seam or 2-seam to the glove-side low corner. Typically, the 4-seam to that low corner works better against righties, and the 2-seam works better against lefties because it gets arm-side run. That arm-side run moves away from lefties which means he can start that pitch off the plate, but then move it back over the plate and get hitters to watch the pitch go by for a strike.

Here’s the 2-Seam that works back over the corner low in the zone to both righties and lefties.

Tunneling the Slider

Now watch how he tunnels his slider off of his 2-seam to get swing and miss. The first 2 tunnel sequences are from back when he was with St. Louis and they appear to be 2-Seam sinkers, and the last sequence was from last year when he was with the  Giants and was throwing his 4-Seam.

4-Seam

One of the first things that pitchers focus on when they become a Dodger is to throw in combinations that tunnel off of each other as you saw in the last video. Another main focus for newly acquired Dodgers pitchers is to throw the 4-seam. The reason is, the Dodgers have used modern machinery to determine that creating backspin on a pitch makes it appear as if it is rising to the hitter.

They call it the “riding” effect. 

The more backspin that a pitcher creates, the more of a “rising” illusion they can give which works well at the top of the zone but also works to carry the bottom of the zone as well.

What likely caught the Dodger’s attention was that Miller was hitting 97 with it last year.

Another Secondary?

Miller has thrown a changeup and a curveball in his past but was charted by Statcast as throwing the slider as his only secondary pitch last year in 2022. His fastball gives him the “riding” effect the Dodgers like, the slider gives the “left-turn” and so it will be interesting to see if the club has him start throwing another one of his secondaries next year to give him a pitch with a “right-turn”. 

If the Dodgers choose to go that direction, I think his sinker would probably be the best candidate to be that pitch because it has the highest spin rate of any of his secondaries and the most consistent in zone swing %. Those 2 pieces of data combined would indicate that if he can throw his sinker for strikes, he can get outs with that pitch.

But, here’s a video showing his changeup, curveball, and 2-Seam and I’ll let you be the judge.

Conclusion

The Dodgers are very good at helping veterans re-start their careers, and it’s not just random luck. They look for a certain formula of measurables and metrics and if a player fits the mold, they don’t hesitate. 

In Miller’s case, he has the 97 mph 4-seam, then also a slider that he tunnels off of it, and that is one of the first things the organization looks for. That combo was a complete game-changer for both Yency Almonte and Evan Phillips, 2 of the most recent reclamation projects that were shut down bullpen arms last year. 

That combination is enough for Miller to find success with the Dodgers, so it will be interesting to see if they stick with that mix or try to add one more pitch. If Miller adds one more “right-turn” pitch, he could quickly become a very good hand for the Dodgers, most likely out of the bullpen. 

In conclusion, It would be hard to picture Miller being considered for a starting role considering that he left 2022 with just a 2-pitch mix. 

He’s also not going to break the bank, so if it doesn’t work out it’s not going to cripple the organization in any way. 

Of course, we need to wait and see if it brings results, but, either way, taking this chance with a guy that has the amount of upside of Miller makes total sense.