Martinez, The Rookies, the Rest of Free Agency?

The Dodgers are in the midst of a very selective off-season in which their 2 biggest signings have met specific requirements. Both Noah Syndergaard and J.D. Martinez were signed to one-year deals, both have had playoff success and they both have the potential to be elite next year under the instruction of the Dodgers organization.

The Dodgers lost quite a bit to free agency last year, which may have given the appearance that they needed to be very aggressive in the Free Agency market. But the fact that the Dodgers lost quite a bit may have overshadowed the fact that they return a lot as well. 

And, keep in mind that the Dodgers won 111 games last year, so they could stand to shed a little and still easily be in the 90s in win total which would almost certainly qualify them for the playoffs.

And, as we saw last year, winning your Division isn’t a golden ticket.

We all know, the problem last year wasn’t winning games, it was the failure in the playoffs, so the qualifications the Dodgers surely were looking for in the Free Agency market were Playoff success, short-term contracts, and the possibility of returning signed players to their prime.

So, why didn’t the Dodgers sign a big named shortstop via free agency? 

Dansby Swanson is a career .249 hitter in the postseason with an OPS of .720 and has hit .125 and .224 in the last 2 years. Both Carlos Correa and Trea Turner are going to get paid until they are 40, and Xander Bogaerts is going to get paid until he is 41. So there is no way the Dodgers could have justified those contracts as being beneficial to the club in the long term.

The first couple of years would be great, but the vast majority of data suggests that in the last 6 years or so, those clubs will be overpaying, and probably by quite a bit. The Dodgers already have two contracts in which they will be paying players deep into their 30s with Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, so they just don’t have the flexibility to sign any more of those types of contracts at the moment. 

And, the Dodgers have options at shortstop in Jacob Amaya, Gavin Lux, and Chris Taylor that, if given the right amount of time and support to get comfortable, all could be very good players at that position.

Imagine 4 or 5 years from now if more than half of the Dodgers lineup was in their mid to upper 30s and they still had 5 years left on their contracts, and most, if not all of them are not producing at top of the league levels, of which the data suggest would be the most likely case.

The Dodgers would be in for an extended period of 5 or more years before they could rebuild into a yearly contender again. 

So, despite the fury of Dodgers fans, the front office has wisely held off and been very selective in this year’s Free Agency market. 

And Smart.

J.D. Martinez and Noah Syndergaard, the two highest-profile free agents the Dodgers have signed, have both had Post-season success and both were signed to 1-year deals.

That puts the club in a position of power.

If they perform at high levels the Dodgers will have the first shot at keeping them, and if they don’t, they have a crop full of rookies ready to take over and aren’t on the hook for more than this year.

It’s the perfect plan for the personnel that is in the organization right now. And, with deep pockets, keeping roster flexibility gives the organization the best chance to win a World Series every year and not have a drought that long-term contracts would put them in jeopardy of having.

The Dodgers will be mixing their rookies with guys like Will Smith and Gavin Lux who have experience but are still young, then mixed with guys like Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, J.D. Martinez, and Clayton Kershaw who will provide great veteran leadership. It’s should provide a dynamic that brings a lot of youthful energy and excitement, but also veteran focus and perspective. 

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