The conclusion to the Trevor Bauer situation is quickly approaching as the deadline for the Dodgers to make their decision on whether to release or keep him is tomorrow. Bauer is not getting paid for the first 50 games of the Regular Season which reduces his salary in 2023 to $22.5 Million, a figure that has led some to project that the payroll of the Dodgers will come in just slightly under the $233,000,000 Competitive Tax Limit.
Well, at least for the moment.
That’s because arbitration estimates could be wrong, and bonus payouts could very well put the Dodgers over the limit anyways.
But, even having said that, with Bauer’s 50-game pay cut putting the Dodgers just under the threshold, even if staying under the CBT limit proves to be temporary, it still makes that suspension of pay either one of the greatest coincidences of all time, or it means it was set intentionally.
If the Dodgers plan on releasing Bauer, the least of all the bad-case scenarios is to find a trading partner in the American League.
I know, I know, you’re thinking, why would someone trade for him and give up prospects when they can wait and get him in Free Agency and wouldn’t have to part with any pieces from their farm?
Well, first of all, money, and second of all, return.
And, the Dodgers don’t have to ask for prospects in return to make it worth the while.
First, let’s start with what another club would gain by trading for Bauer.
A club that would be willing to trade for Bauer would be getting a Cy Young winner at a very low cost, likely much lower than they could get a player of his worth ever again, and only on a 1-year deal. Short of total collusion by the MLB owners, surely there is a team that would be willing to give a Cy Young winner a 2nd chance at a different location for a record-setting low price.
The one-year also provides the caveat that, If it doesn’t work out, they could just cut him and move on.
Also, a trade would eliminate competition for Bauer which would avoid the bidding war of Free Agency and surely reduce the amount a team could get him for.
Potentially by quite a bit, one would have to assume.
For example, let’s say the Dodgers trade Bauer for $5,000,000 and a bucket of BP balls
That sounds very cheap because the Dodgers would still be on the hook for the rest of the $17.5 million, and they would be profiting a grand total of about 3 rounds of free Batting Practice.
At least that’s how it would look on the surface.
But, let’s dive a little deeper.
For this to be beneficial for the Dodgers, and a better deal than an outright release, all they need the other team to pay is the amount that will keep them under the CBT threshold after the arbitration cases and bonuses become final numbers. So, after the Dodgers estimate the highest amounts in all scenarios, they could offer Bauer for that exact amount to another team, and even if they’re not getting a return, they still come out ahead.
It would be beneficial for both sides.
It would keep the Dodgers from going over the threshold, and it would keep Bauer away from National League competitors. As per the team that acquires him, they would be getting a Cy Young winner, in his prime years, for an extremely cheap price and at the greatest length of any contract, just 1 year.
This scenario prevents the worst-case scenario for the Dodgers which would be to release him, then go over the CBT anyways, then Bauer ends up playing for a National League competitor.
So, no matter how little the Dodgers would get in return, if anything, a trade would be advantageous. It would be better than getting nothing, and it’s certainly better than getting nothing for nothing, which would be the case if they released him and still went over the CBT.
Of course, the Dodgers would have to find a trade partner, which is likely what they have spent the vast majority of their time trying to do, but for the right price and for the right deal, anything’s possible.
