The Impact of Picking up Peralta and Reyes

The Dodgers picked up 2 free agents recently, David Peralta and Alex Reyes. If you remember the walkoff that Chris Taylor hit to advance the Dodgers in the 2021 playoffs, then you know Reyes, because he is the pitcher that he hit it off of. Reyes was an All Star that year, so his talent is not in question.

But, his health is.

Reyes underwent Tommy John surgery in 2019, which, by becoming an All Star in 2021, shows that he has moved past that injury. But, his most recent bout with the injury bug has put him on the shelf due to shoulder problems. 

Reyes underwent shoulder surgery in May because of a frayed labrum, and so he’ll be out for at least a couple months. The Dodgers usually don’t like to mess with shoulder issues, but for just $1.1 million, it’s certainly worth the chance. 

It’s a very high upside deal, with very low risk. $1.1 million is a lot of money to 99.99 % of people on earth, but, to an organization like the Dodgers, it’s a low risk figure. 

At the top end, Reyes could fill one of the roles in the Pitching staff that has the most glaring need, and that is closer. For $1.1 million and several different incentives, that’s a situation that is well worth it. 

On the bottom end, like Dellin Betances and Hansel Robles, Reyes never quite regains his health and pitches in AAA for a length of time that allows the Dodgers to make an educated evaluation on his worth. If, at that point, like the club did with both Betances and Robles, the club decides to move on, they would have invested $1.1 million dollars for a AAA player. 

That’s not necessarily good, but, again, the impact of the upside heavily outweighs the impact of the downside, especially considering that he will not be taking up any mound time from any of the Dodgers top rookies at least for a couple months. 

Miller, Stone, Pepiot, Grove and Jackson, will not have valuable innings taken away at the start of the season in favor of an experiment. I use the term experiment strictly meaning it’s unpredictable how Reyes will recover from his shoulder surgery. 

The Peralta signing is a different ballgame however. Although Peralta won the Silver Slugger Award in 2018 and the Gold Glove in 2019, and has always been a good offensive player, he is 35 and hit .251 with an OPS of .731 and 12 home runs last year. He has just 25 home runs in his last 1129 at bats, and has posted OPS numbers of .731 and .727 in his last 2 seasons. The last time his posted an OPS over .800 was 2019.

I’m not trying to make the case that the Peralta signing was a bad deal, but I am trying to make the case that it does have grey area. 

The Dodgers have one goal, and that is to win the World Series. Anything short of that falls short of the goals that every Dodgers fan, player or Admin should have for this club. 

Peralta has played in the playoffs in parts of just 2 seasons and has just 19 at-bats, and has hit .211 in the playoffs with an OPS of .461 and has hit 0 home runs. So, anyone claiming that he advances the cause of the Dodgers winning a World Series title is guessing, because he doesn’t have a post season track record that can prove that claim. 

In the post season, he has 19 more at bats, 4 more hits and the exact same amount of both home runs and RBIs as every rookie position player on the Dodgers roster, which would be 0. 

So, the grey area comes inside of this question.

Do you stunt the growth of James Outman or Michael Busch, all without a track record to draw upon while considering if the club is in better position to win the World Series? 

I’ve stated several times that only two outcomes should be considered acceptable for the Dodgers this season. One, obviously, is to win the World Series, the other would be to develop their future. 

If they win the World Series, the season is obviously a total success, even if none of the rookies play and gain any experience. If the Dodgers fall short of their goal of winning the World Series, but leave 2023 feeling as if they have developed their future and are in a better position to win the World Series in the upcoming years, it wouldn’t be a total success, but it wouldn’t be a total failure either. If the Dodgers don’t win the World Series, and then, also, don’t develop their future, that would be the worst case scenario for 2023. 

There are  a bunch of wheels turning, and there are going to be a bunch of options and we all know how much the Dodgers love that flexibility. They could go young, they could go veteran, and, then, they could choose a path that is somewhere in between. 

The latter is the most likely outcome. 

Keep in mind, once the Dodgers were put back on the hook for Trevor Bauer’s salary, they were never going to get under the luxury tax. Incentives were, almost assuredly, going to take that option away, and that was before all of the arbitration agreements. So, at this point, the club is over, and, thus are all in. 

Some have suggested that the club might consider trading a big contract to shed salary in an attempt to get under the CBT. I learned a long time ago to “Never say Never”, so I’ll just say that I’m pretty confident that won’t happen. 

On the flip side, after all of these position battles take place, the Dodgers will have a much clearer picture of the needs they will have to win a World Series. Once all of the battles have taken place and the roles have been defined, the Dodgers can then start considering trade packages for players that fill their needs, and they would pull the trigger for the right guy, I am convinced of that. 

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