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The goal for every player, every person in the front office, and certainly every fan, every year, is to win a World title. 

That much can’t be debated.

But, just about everything else along the way can, and, in today’s article, I’m gonna give my perspective as to the slow start this year for the Dodgers.

Context

The Dodgers have won the NL West every year since 2013 with the exception of 2021. Ironically, in 2021, the Dodges tied for the 2nd most wins during that period of time when they posted a record of 106-56. 

During that span, the Dodgers started the season by going 5-5 or worse twice, and by going 6-4 on 3 other occasions. That means that in 5 of the last 9 years in which the Dodgers won the NL West, they either started the exact same as they have this year, 1 game worse, or 1 game better. 2020 was such a short season that every game had a different meaning than a typical 162-game schedule, so I did not use that year in reference to a comparison to the start for 2023. 

Baseball is a marathon and these statistics are a reminder of that and an example of why it’s important not to make a mountain out of a molehill. The data that was just used is only a comparison to the beginning of these years, but, if you analyzed further, the Dodgers have gone 5-5 or worse in 10 games stretches 56 different times since 2013 when the NL West Division streak started. So, it’s important to not focus on the results as much as the process of what’s led to the slow start. 

So, what exactly have been the issues that have led to the 5 losses in the first 10 games?

A little bit of everything, so let’s dive in. 

In the first loss, the Dodgers scored just one run on 5 hits and spread out single hits over 5 different players. Alex Vesia took the loss giving up 2 runs in the 8th inning which was all the D-Backs needed. 

In the 2nd loss, the Dodgers again only scored 1 run and it came in the 1st inning off of a home run from Will Smith. So, the Dodgers were scoring a bunch of runs in one game, but then barely scoring in the next. Sometimes that just happens in baseball, but it tends to happen more to teams that rely heavily on home runs to score.

The Dodgers have scored 60 runs which is 2nd in scoring in the NL, and have given up just 44 which is 9th best in the league. So, the run differential would suggest that the record should be better.  However, coming into yesterday, in their 4 losses to that point, of the 13 runs they had scored, 7 of them had been driven in via a home run. The offense had been up and down because it had been “boom or bust”, so when it’s gone boom it’s generated piles of runs in short periods of time. But, when it had gone bust, it went almost completely dry. 

In yesterday’s game the Dodgers scored 6 runs without hitting a home run, but, when you’re down 11-3 by the 5th inning, the other teams’ pitchers tend to pitch differently in the sense that the focus becomes throwing strikes. So, at least in my opinion, there’s not a whole lot to take from the 3 runs the Dodgers scored in the 8th and 9th other than Martinez and Vargas looked like they got their timing down. 

In summary, the offense is too much “Boom or Bust” to be consistent. The number of runs scored will look good, as well as the run differential, but that’s hollow when you’re only .500. 

Pitching

Noah Syndergaard was really good in his first start, then not good in his last. Michael Grove has 2 starts and was simply unlucky in his first, but was simply not good in his last, and that pains me to type, trust me. I’m very high on Grove’s talent, and I still believe that, in time, he will prove to be a quality Major League pitcher, but, the results are results and yesterday just was not good. 

Clayton Kershaw was great in his first outing, then great for almost all of his 2nd outing, and Julio Urias and Dustin May have been great. Overall, Clayton Kershaw will be good as the season evens things out, I think we an all agree on that, but, the Dodgers are going to have to find better production from their 4 and 5 spots in the rotation. 

It will be interesting to see how long the Dodgers will give Noah Syndergaard to figure things out, because, dating back to Spring Training, he has given up 12 runs in his last 17 innings. 

Of course, if Tony Gonsolin gets healthy and pitches like he did last year, that shores the 4th starter spot, and if Ryan Pepiot, when he gets healthy, can match his career ERA of 3.47 all the problems are solved in terms of the rotation. 

The Bullpen

As far as the bullpen goes, Yency Almonte and Alex Vesia are 2 pitchers that were elite last year but have leaked a little to this point in 2023. They were so excellent last year that they have earned quite a bit of runway to get things figured out this year. Evan Phillips has been his typical dominant self and Caleb Ferguson had not allowed a run until yesterday when the game was already out of hand by the time he entered. 

Phil Bickford has already appeared in 5 games and has allowed runs in just one of those outings, so, for the vast majority of the time he has spent on the mound, he has been very good. Brusdar Graterol had been good until his last outing where he gave up 2 runs in 1 inning of work, so, kind of like the offense, he’s been hot and cold.

Shelby Miller has been dominant so far and has not allowed a run in his 4 appearances which have totaled 5 innings. 

All in all, if you assume that Vesia and Almonte will return to form, and Miller will keep up his good work, the pen, although somewhat disappointing to this point, is still in good shape. Especially when you consider that Bickford and Graterol have MLB track records of success to pitch in. 

Depth Pool

Also, don’t forget that the Dodgers have Gavin Stone and Bobby Miller as rookies that have shown to be very talented and could provide depth. Wander Suero, Justin Bruihl, Tayler Scott, and Victor Gonzalez all have MLB experience and have pitched very well in relief for OKC as well. Also, if Syndergaard proves to end up being good in the 5th spot in the rotation, that frees up Pepiot to go to the pen as well.

So, if needed, there is help to dip into. 

Bottom Line

I like to live by the motto of not complaining unless you have a solution, so, after typing this article, here’s mine. 

The offense needs to become more dynamic and be able to score in several different ways other than home runs. Home runs are great, and they do lead to lots of runs, but, if an offense relies on them too much, it will lead to runs in bunches, then extended periods of drought. 

As far as pitching, the Dodgers just need to sit tight and let the season even things out, then wait and see what happens with the health of Pepiot and Gonsolin. As long as those 2 come back healthy, that would leave them with only one situation to monitor and that would be Syndergaard.

The ball would be in his court!

If he pitches well, he’s in. If not, assuming Gonsolin is healthy, then Ryan Pepiot would get that spot, which takes depth away from the pen. 

The talent and depth is there in the bullpen, so the club will not make “knee-jerk” decisions. They will give the guys in the pen the time they need to return to dominance before they pull the trigger on a trade. However, contrary to what some believe, the Dodgers absolutely would pull the trigger on a trade to help win a World Series. 

The Dodgers have so much prospect capital, and a lot of it is at its peak value. So, they either need to play guys like Michael Busch, or trade them before they start losing value.  The club knows this better than I do, and so do all the other clubs in the MLB, so, if the need is still arisen in July, a trade will happen. As in, any trade necessary to help win a World Series. The club will go “all in” to that extent, that much I am confident in. 

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