For the 4th time since 2019 the Dodgers have fallen short of the World Series, and done so by a team that had less than 90 wins in the regular season. And, let’s be clear, every year, even this year, injuries and all, it is World Series or bust for an organization with the amount of resources the Dodgers have.

No excuses, no sugar coating and no other alternative, the Dodgers either win the World Series, or it is a disappointment.

And, that’s a good thing….No, it’s actually a great thing that the expectations have been and will always be set that high. No one, Dave, the players, the Front Office, and everyone in between, wants that mentality to change. Ever!

So, instead of hashing out all of the potential excuses or reasons why this club has fallen short, this article is going to address some parts of the organization that I believe needs changing.

Right, wrong or indifferent, here are my thoughts.

Solution Based Thinking 

One rule of thumb that most great leaders live by is that, if you have a complaint, you must also have a solution. If you don’t have a solution, or at least suggestions that open a dialogue that work towards a solution, then keep working until you do.

And, despite almost always being the first reaction to massive disappointment, “fire this guy or get rid of that guy” isn’t a solution. At least not in and of itself. And issues like the Dodgers are having in the Post Season are so much more far reaching than that surface level line of reasoning.

So, let’s start with the manager Dave Roberts. 

The Manager

Dave Roberts takes tremendous heat from Dodgers fans, and if he acts oblivious to it, it’s because he is. Criticism is just part of the deal when you sign on to be the Manager of such a high profile organization. Dave knows what comes with this type of job, and, if he didn’t embrace that type of visibility, he would, instead, be a volunteer coach at UCLA, his Alma Mater.

Just like Robin Ventura, or several other former pros have done in finding lower key ways to stay involved with high level, very competitive baseball. 

So, having said that, if Dodgers fans feel like leadership at the top needs changed, that’s understandable. After all, and, again, the bar is a World Series title, and getting bounced 4 times by teams with less than 90 wins is not acceptable. 

I don’t mean that to throw shade in any way, it just is what it is.

But, this collapse was not on Dave. He can’t hit for Mookie and Freddie, and he damn sure can’t pitch for Kershaw, so this is 100% on the players, and specifically on the veterans. 

They know that and I’m certainly not revealing anything that is Earth shattering by making that comment. 

Some might say that it’s Dave’s job to prepare his players to perform better when it matters, so from that perspective this is on him.

That’s fair but, this tweet sums up my views on that matter perfectly.

It's funny cause I would argue managers make more a difference with getting rookies and role players adjusted in terms of culture, and that has been ... good? Like the stars shouldn't need to be babysat and they are ones not coming through. https://t.co/pqbR7dkXQB

— Chad Moriyama (@ChadMoriyama) October 12, 2023

No doubt, it is Roberts job to get every player ready, but, seriously, when it comes to Kershaw, Mookie, Freddie and all of the other vets, that, IMO, is on them. 

And, if you ask them, they would say the same thing, and not as lip service, but, because they would mean it. 

So, if you want Roberts gone, that’s fine, I understand it. It’s a job, and, as a coach, you know that you are hired only to get fired. That’s one of the most commonly used, laughed about but most accurate phrases used in the coaching ranks.

But, in my opinion, that wouldn’t be getting to the point of what really needs to change.

Firing Dave Roberts would serve little more than as a ritual showing that someone’s head had to roll after this last early exit. Dave would be falling on that sword one last time, which, again, is just part of the life of being a coach. That part of it is what it is.

So what are the deeper, more systemic issues that go to the root of the Dodgers problems?

Something Has to Change

We all know that the Dodgers are very analytical, and use tons of data that is very advanced to formulate their system wide approaches to the different aspects of the game. Sabermetrics, advanced analytics, or whatever you want to call it is all great, and it works. But, it works much better over large samples of data than it does high stakes 5 game series. 

Over 162 games and 1000’s of innings, odds matter, and advanced analytics are meant to give you the best odds. But, as complicated as they are, their results, more than ever, are open to human interpretation.

So, as ironically as it seems, the more data that gets put into the equation, the more human judgement is actually needed.

For instance, advanced analytics would suggest that flyballs are better than ground balls in terms of producing hits and scoring runs. But, if you take away all home runs hit, and then add in all of the foul ball outs that are recorded by pop ups, then it paints a different picture.

So, unless you are a hitter that consistently hits the ball out of the yard, say 25-30 times a year, that flyball data doesn’t apply to you. So, again, it needs to be interpreted, and by humans.

I say all of that to say this.

The Dodgers consistently are towards to the top of the leaderboard in runs scored because they believe in the 3 outcomes of hitting, which is home runs, walks and striking out. 

And, it works!

That is, until many times, like this post season, when the sample size shrinks, and the opponent is throwing their best pitchers and not simply trying eat innings. So many times throughout a 162 game season, teams leave a pitcher in knowing they are going to take it on the chin just to save the bullpen for the next several games they have upcoming. 

It’s called losing a battle to win the war. 

The problem is, in the playoffs, the lines between battles and wars don’t exist. Or, at the very least, those lines become much more blurred. So, you’re always facing whatever the best pitcher is that the other team has available at that moment. 

That means that it’s less likely to pile on a 10 run game like you can in the regular season. Those 10 run games help compile the data that shows how well 3 true outcome offenses do in terms of scoring runs. 

Shift in Philosophy

The 3 true outcome philosophy does lead to a lot of runs, but, it also leads to long dry periods as well where the offense is putting literally 0 pressure on the other team. If that stretch happens in June, yeah, it’s frustrating, but, by July, everyone has forgotten about it. But, if it happens in the post season, like it did this year, then it’s catastrophic.

So, that, in my opinion, is the root of the problem.

But, what is the solution? 

Assuming Mookie Betts moves back to right field, the Dodgers will have openings in Left field, 2nd base, then possibly at 3rd base, and hopefully not at short stop. Hopefully Lux will be back and better than ever, and will become the every day short stop.

Let’s also hope that Lux hits his potential offensively and turns into a high average, fast, base stealing pain in the ass to the other team, like we saw with some of the guys on the Arizona squad.

If he’s able to do that, it would be huge for the 2024 club!

So, that would leave left field and 2nd base open. Those spots need to be filled with high average, low K percentage, base stealing type pesky offensive players. Whether the Dodgers stay in house, or hit the Free Agency market, those are the type of offensive players that need to be targeted for those positions.

Small Ball isn’t a “Cuss” Word

Deeper than that, the Dodgers need to start valuing contact, batting average and stealing bases throughout the organization more than they do currently. This organization is littered with 3 outcome offensive players, but are light on small ballers.

And, when I say “small ball” I don’t mean bunting. I am not a fan of giving up outs to the other team, but I am a fan of doing what it takes to put pressure on them. Causing distractions, creating havoc, and being a basic pain in the neck causes the other teams pitchers to make mistakes, as well as their defense. 

For instance, when you know the other team will advance every time you miss the cutoff off that’s one thing. In fact, almost every player and every team can do this, regardless of how athletic or not they are. But, then knowing they, almost every time, will make you pay for that by hitting behind a runner, or just finding a way to put the ball in play to score that runner adds several degrees of damage to that equation.

It makes the defense feel like they have to be perfect, and not just routine, and that leads to mistakes, even for professionals!

The Dodgers need to start targeting guys who stay inside the ball, use the big part of the field, and let the ball get deep with 2 strikes as to hit the ball the other way when down in the count and trying to hit pitchers pitches. The Dodgers need to target offensive players that are athletic, and actually use that athletic ability on the base paths to put pressure on the defense. 

All this adds up to another reason why not investing more in guys like Jonny DeLuca or Drew Avans this year was so disappointing.

David Peralta and Jason Heyward had decent years, and, yes, I’m sure they provided some leadership, but, what they didn’t provide was 20/20 potential and borderline 30/30 like DeLuca has throughout his career.

For instance, combined between David Peralta and Jason Heyward, they had a batting average of .263, which isn’t bad, especially for this organization. But, between the two, they stole a grand total of 6 bases and had 22 home runs combined.

David Peralta hit .259, which isn’t terrible, but he had just 4 stolen bases and 7 home runs. But, yet, he was prioritized over Jonny DeLuca, Drew Avans, Yonny Hernandez, and in the playoffs, James Outman. 

Guys like Austin Gauthier need to be valued for the type of offensive game he has. Gauthier uses the big part of the field as well as anyone in the Minor Leagues, and it’s a total approach for him. He can hit some home runs, 12 this year, but that’s not, in any way his focus. His one and only goal is to stay inside the ball, use the big part of the field and hit line drives.  

On the vice versa, Max Muncy is feast or famine, which is fine if you have others around him to compliment that. In other words, you need several others around him that don’t strike out a lot and hit for high averages to make his home runs actually matter. And, if his home runs are in positions that don’t matter as much, his value is very limited. 

Pitching

In terms of pitching, I’ve been screaming from the mountain top since early in the year that the Dodgers need to sign a bonafide and legitimate #1 starter. Yes, Buehler MIGHT come back very strong, same with Gonsolin and May. And, yes, guys like Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, Emmet Sheehan and the like have “Ace” potential as well. 

But, it can’t be any of them, because the Dodgers need a sure thing. 

In that case, it only makes all of those guys better. Imagine if Kershaw were able to pace himself a little better at the beginning of this year, or if Gonsolin could have actually had his entire rehab, or if the club could have afforded to use Dustin May in 1 inning bursts. Now imagine all those guys at full strength in the playoffs, and that’s what getting a #1 starter would do for the 2024 club. It would slide everyone back and allow the org. to pace each pitcher to optimize their production and value. 

There are other issues, like left handed relief, but, bullpen work is a year to year thing. Just because a guy is good one year in the pen isn’t a forecast for the next year. So, Fergie and Vesia are just as likely to be good next year as anyone the Dodgers could get. 

Final thoughts

I’ve rambled on long enough, so if you’re still locked in and reading, I really appreciate it on several levels. Probably, mostly, it’s just therapy for me to get all of these thoughts off of my chest and for others to see. 

And, in closing, I’d like to say, thanks to everyone who helped Dodgers Daily grow throughout this past season. Dodgers Daily is still new, and trying to grow, so every bit of support is greatly appreciated. 

Time now to focus on the off season, the hot stove and tons of prospect reports. 

Become a subscriber to our Dodgers Daily YouTube page and follow us on Twitter @dodger_daily, on Instagram @dodger.daily, or on TikTok @dodgers_daily.

Also, please consider donating to our GoFundMe to help Dodgers Daily keep growing. To do so, click this link https://gofund.me/db54a295. This site will always be free to its viewers, but it does take time and money to run, so any sized donation would be greatly appreciated.