As Dodgers fans continue to work their way through the different stages of frustration, many have graduated to the stage of wondering what is next. Most are anxiously anticipating the moves the Dodgers are going to make this off season, and, around that subject, there are a lot of questions.

Like…Do the Dodgers go for broke, or do they turn things over and rely even heavier on the Farm system?

One thing is for sure, and that is, for every huge contract, the Dodgers will also have to match that with a cheap contract from a guy that over produces. The Dodgers have found a lot of those type situations through reclamations of veterans, but another way to find players on cheap contracts is through the Farm System.

If you are rooting for the Dodgers to sign Shohei Ohtani, then you also need to be rooting for Jonny DeLuca to be the starting left fielder. If you want to sign Yamamoto, then it needs to be understood that all of the rest of the holes have to be filled in by either cheap veterans, or even cheaper prospects. 

Not even the Dodgers, with all of their resources, can sign players with massive contracts at every position. 

So, who would be the prospects that would provide the cheaper options?

Today’s article is going to address the starting rotation, so let’s start there.

We’ve already seen Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove, Gavin Stone and just a splash of Kyle Hurt. Having seen those guys so many times, I would like to make my opinion clear, and that is they are more talented than anyone the Dodgers could acquire.

If the Dodgers outsource their rotation next year through the Free Agency or the Trade Market, they will NOT be doing so with pitchers with better “stuff” than the rookies and/or prospects that they have in house. 

Ryan Pepiot has a change up that will rival any pitcher the Dodgers acquire, Emmet Sheehan’s fastball will be more explosive and Kyle Hurt and Bobby Millers overall stuff will have more upside.

So, by out sourcing, it will done on track record and not potential.

And, one starter, for the moment, will be enough, in my opinion, as long as that starter is a frontline, elite, #1 starter type pitcher. 

That would leave Buehler, Miller, Pepiot, Stone, Hurt, Kershaw and Gonsolin to fill the final 4 spots. That’s also assuming that Dustin May gets moved to the pen to limit pitch counts and maximize health and effectiveness.

And, that doesn’t take into account any of the starting pitching prospects that will be making their MLB in 2024.

Nick Frasso, Landon Knack and River Ryan, in my opinion, will most likely make their debuts next year, and they are all supremely talented. Ryan is not on the 40 man, nor is he Rule 5 eligible, so his road will be a little bit longer, but he still has a good chance to bust the doors down.

Landon Knack

Knack was drafted by the Dodgers in the 2nd Round of the 2020 draft, a draft which only had 5 rounds, and, thus, included just the “Cream of the Crop.” 

As with most Dodger pitching prospects, the first feature of Knack’s skill set is that he is a big-time power arm with a fastball that ranges from 93-to 96. As you can see in the video below, he likes to “ride” his fastball up in the zone to take advantage of the high spin rate of that pitch.

He also can locate his fastball down in the zone, and when he does it has good “carry” so he’s able to keep it in the zone around the knees instead of having it sink out of the zone.

Knack also shapes 2 different types of breaking balls.  I like to use the term “shape” to supplement the terms slider, curveball, etc…because the latter terms are so subjective. What some call cutters, others call sliders, etc. His 12-6 shaped breaking ball ranges from 80-85 and has a ton of downward break. It can be used as a “get me over” to get ahead in counts, or it can be used to spin out of the zone to entice swing and miss strikeouts.

Adding to his arsenal is a “3-9” shaped slider that sits at 86-89, so it is a power pitch.

To round out the arsenal of Landon Knack, I saved what he considers his most “important” pitch which is his changeup. His changeup is his most important pitch, in my opinion, because hitters can’t differentiate between it and his fastball, and, it tumbles, A LOT! So he is able to get the same kind of downward movement with his change-up as he does with his curveball, but with no identifiable spin or differing arm slot for a hitter to recognize. To hitters, his change-up will look identical to his fastball, but will then fall off the table. Also, it provides a significant difference in speed from his fastball so he can use it to keep hitters off balance.

Nick Frasso

4 Seam Fastball 

As with all of the Dodgers power pitchers, Frasso builds his arsenal around his fastball, and specifically the way he is able to ride the top of the zone with it to get a lot of swing and miss. He also gets great extension, so, while he has reached 100 mph on more than one occasion, his fastball looks even faster than that to a hitter because he is so close to home plate when he delivers the ball. To see how his 4 seam fastball plays at the top of the zone, click here or on the picture to the left. 

After Frasso separates, and when he is in full extension, as in the picture on the right, his body is actually pointed to the 3rd base side and behind a right handed hitter. So, when he throws the ball to the 4 slot, which is the glove-side corner, it really comes across to hitters as a crossfire and is very uncomfortable. Click here or on the picture on the right to watch how uncomfortable it would be to hit his 4 slot fastball. 

Frasso is 6’5, and gets down the mound quite a bit in his stride, so when he throws low, the pitch has a long ways to go from his hand all the way down to the bottom of the zone. So, he gets a lot of vertical drop, which makes it very difficult to hit.

Also, with his length, and the amount of drop, for it to stay a strike, it’s clear he gets great carry. That means that, instead of continuing to drop out of the zone, because his fastball has such good spin rate, it stays flat enough to stay in the strike zone. To watch his fastball carry the bottom of the zone, click here, or on the picture on the left. 

Changeup

Frasso’s changeup is a very good pitch for several reasons, the main being how hard he throws. Because he throws so hard, hitters have to load up early, and, then, when he throws a changeup, it’s very difficult to stay back because it looks just like his fastball until it starts tumbling. By that time, it’s too late to do damage to the pitch. To watch how his changeup plays, click here or on the picture to the right. 

Slider

Frasso has a very late breaking, tight, what you might describe as a “nasty” slider. He can tunnel it off of his 4 slot fastball, or he can start it off the plate arm side, then let it break back over the plate for a strike.

Then, also, in a plus count, he can add depth to the pitch, make it look like a strike, but tumble it out of the zone for swing and miss. To watch how Frasso uses his slider, click here or on the picture on the left

River Ryan

4 Seam Fastball

His fastball has reached as high as 99 and he loves to ride it at the top of the zone to get above the swings of modern day hitters that lift. Click here, or on the picture to the left to watch how his fastball plays at the top of the zone.

Statcast data is kept at the AA level, but is not made available to the public, so the best way to identify how much spin a pitcher is getting on their 4 seam is to see how that pitch carries at the bottom of the zone. Ryan’s 4 Seam plays very well low in the zone, which suggests that the spin rate on his 4 seam is very good. Click here or on the picture to the right to watch him carry the bottom of the zone with his 4 Seam. 

Ryan is also very good at locating his 4 seam to what the Dodgers call the 4 slot, which is the arm side corner and preferably low. This pitch rides in underneath the swing of lefties and is low and away to righties, so it is a very important part of a successful fastball sequence. To watch Ryan locate his 4 Seam to the 4 slot click here or on the picture to the left. 

Slider

The Dodgers love to have their pitchers throw a slider for a multitude of reasons. For one, it tunnels very well off of the fastball and it also can take different shapes based on the count, the batter and the situation. When Ryan needs to throw the pitch for a strike he can make it smaller and more “cutterish” to get tighter spin, but less movement, which allows him to control the pitch with less likelihood of it getting ambushed. Click to watch what I call his “get me over” slider, which is smaller, and meant to be a high strike efficiency pitch. 

When Ryan is ahead in the count and is needing “swing and miss” he can add depth to his slider and make it a bigger pitch. It acts very similar to a curveball, but with tighter spin and usually more of an outside location after the pitch turns left. To watch his bigger “swing and miss” slider, click here or on the picture to the left. 

Ryan is also very good at throwing his slider to lefties as well and getting underneath their swings. When he throws this pitch you’ll see a lot of left handed hitters foul it off their foot, or just simply have very uncomfortable swings due to the tight spin, late break and the depth of the pitch that is buzzing in on their hands. To see how Ryan uses his slider to lefties click here or on the picture to the right. 

Changeup

The Dodgers also love for their pitchers to throw a changeup because it looks so much like the fastball out of the hand, it’s hard for the hitter to identify. In fact, when trying to find changeups on Ryan’s videos, without a radar gun, it was virtually impossible to detect until the pitch started tumbling, which, by that time, is too late for a hitter to make an adjustment. The 4 seam rides and gives a rising effect, and the changeup drops and gives the tumbling effect, all with the same arm speed & motion of the fastball. To see Ryan’s changeup click here or on the picture to the left. 

Curveball

Not every power pitcher, like Ryan, in the system has a curveball, mainly because they can just add depth to their slider to get a similar effect. But, Ryan likes to flip a curveball every now and then as another secondary pitch to give the hitter something else to look at. It also makes his sequences harder for the hitter to sit on certain pitches and ambush them, because he doesn’t always have to throw his fastball when he needs a strike. He can also make the pitch look like a strike, but then tumble it into the dirt for swing and miss. To see how he uses his curveball to land strikes, click here or on the picture on the right. 

Finishing Up

There are big decisions to make, that is for sure, and the Dodgers take no decisions lightly. They will pour through all of the data and analytics, and as almost always, they will make the best decision. 

Whether they go big or not, or whether it falls somewhere in between remains to be seen, but, either way, the 2024 roster is going to be loaded with elite talent, the question is, how experienced will it be.

Stay tuned for that answer!

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