When Teoscar Hernandez signed with the Dodgers last January, his “Happy Go Lucky” persona, clutch hitting, and overall good game became a fan favorite in L.A. Then, the Dodgers won the World Series and it seemed like a mere formality that the 32-year-old would be re-signed and wear Dodger Blue, at least for the next couple of years.
But, that hasn’t happened! At least not yet, and it’s left Dodgers fans, at least many of them, wondering what the heck is going on.
Contract
According to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, Teo is looking for a 3-year deal, somewhere in the 20s in terms of millions of dollars. Hernandez has a touch over 7 years of service time and is hoping to get to the 10-year mark of service time because that opens up a whole new world of pension benefits, that are lifelong and significant. So, no one should blame Teo for wanting to secure a contract that will get him to the 10 years of service time that he is seeking.
And, to be honest, when the season ended, until we dove behind the curtain, I figured 3 years would have been a slam dunk on the Dodgers end. And, maybe it still would be because we don’t know exactly what the hold-up is. But, we do know there is a hold-up, so sit tight, grab some popcorn, and have an open mind, because our statistician, Austin Brubaker, broke down the analytics of the situation.
32 and Beyond
There is a risk to signing a player who is already 32, and is looking to be signed for his 32, 33, and 34 years, and here’s a breakdown of some of that risk. This is all per our statistician Austin Brubaker, who presented this information on one of our regular Dodgers Dawgs live shows.
Per Austin
Since the year 2000, out of all the players in their age of 32 seasons, only 93 players out of 468 have had an OPS+ of 120 or more. For the age 33 there have only been 91, and for age 34 there have only been 61.
So, as Austin has demonstrated, the numbers typically get worse past the age of 31, and it’s noticeable and can be significant. Then, also, the pool becomes smaller because fewer players make it as each age bracket increases.
Stocks
Of course, the first argument that each Dodger fan would likely point to is Freddie Freeman who hasn’t slowed down, then Mookie Betts who isn’t showing signs of slowing down.
Sure, there are outliers, but if those two are your pushback, the response would be they are future Hall of Famers. So, to be the outlier, and beat the odds, that’s pretty much the caliber of player it takes to beat the odds. Those with few flaws, if any at all, and players that are superior with Hall of Fame-type talent and skills.
I like Teo, I want him back in Dodger Blue, but I can’t make that outlier case for him to beat those odds, and, when negotiating contracts, you have to think in terms of stocks. Yes, the past performance is what drew your attention to the stock, and maybe that stock has made you money in the past, but, for you to make money on your current investment, it has to keep making you money in the future.
So, for clubs like the Dodgers, who make such sound decisions based on all sorts of analytics, they’re trying to figure out what a player is going to do moving forward, not what they’ve done in the past.
As cold as that sounds, that’s the business side of the game, so although we all want Teo back, it’s not a simple situation, and the decision can’t be one made from emotions. So, whatever the decision the Dodgers make, it’s one they won’t take lightly, it will be well thought out, and it will be in the best interest of the Dodgers.
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