In a fairly surprising move, the Dodgers traded Gavin Lux, a second baseman who has been part of 2 World Championships for the Dodgers since 2020, to the Cincinnati Reds. Although the Dodgers are not getting a “Major League ready” return, that does not mean it wasn’t a “Major League” transaction.

Bigtime Prospect

Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Lux has always had the “Top Prospect” tag following him, and that’s because he always was just that, a top prospect. He was the Dodger’s first pick of the 2016 draft straight out of High School and he blazed a trail through the Minor Leagues.

He hit .296 in 2016, his first year in professional baseball, and by 2019 he was possibly the best position player in all of the Minor Leagues. In fact, he was thought of as maybe the best Short Stop prospect in the game as well.

And then he got promoted. And then things started slowing down.

Lux hit just .175 in the World Championship-shortened season of 2020 and has been a good player since then, but not the “Elite” player his prospect status of 2019 had Dodgers fans hyped for.

What Position?

Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)

The situation surrounding Lux is more complicated than how good he has been, or even how good be might end up being. Of course, he missed all of 2023 to a torn ACL, then spent the entire first half of last season trying to recover and get all of his movements back to normal.

And, that took a minute, but once he got back in the groove he was one of the best players in baseball after the All-Star Break.

And that’s all great, but it still doesn’t solve his puzzle. In fact, it just added layers to its complexity.

What? What does that mean?

The problem with his situation is the position he plays and the lack of MLB-quality positional versatility. If the Dodgers felt as if they could put him at Short Stop, get league-average defense, and move Mookie to 2nd, he would be a slam dunk as a keeper and a good young player to build around and support along the way.

But, they tried that, and it didn’t work.

Now, keep in mind it was for a ridiculously short amount of time, made even more ridiculous considering the injury he was coming off of and the fact that he hadn’t played Short Stop consistently in 5 years. And while all those factors matter as to whether or not he actually could be a league-average shortstop, they don’t and can’t matter to an organization like the Dodgers that are in such a “win-now” window.

The Dodgers don’t have the time for experiments that may or may not work. They need players that are “plug and play”, because, despite having some of the best players in the game, raising your floor is probably equally as important.

The Dodgers spend a lot of time evaluating the margins to raise that floor, and, although it may seem like a minor deal, it’s not. Not close!

Players like Kike Hernandez, Tommy Edman, and all the relief pitchers that were found as bargains have played huge roles for this club. That part of the equation needs to be given the respect it deserves, because it has mattered, and does matter.

And, it’s also why Lux just didn’t quite fit.

To guarantee the floor for this club is high enough, the only position Lux was ever going to play on a consistent basis was 2nd base, and the club already has a gold-glove 2nd baseman with Tommy Edman, and would surely like to have a cleaner option to move Mookie there as well, which moving Lux does for them.

So, trading Lux became a good option, and, in my opinion, the only option.

The Trade

Of course, the value for Lux was probably the highest in 2019 when he was still setting the world on fire as a prospect, but who in their right mind wouldn’t want to reap the benefits of what his potential had to offer?

The dude was young, he could rake, was a great athlete, and had created a big buzz around himself. So, it’s completely unrealistic for Dodgers fans to use hindsight to say they should have traded him back then. No one, not even the Dodgers have that type of crystal ball.

So, in the realistic world of things, with the way he finished last year, Lux has the highest trade value that he’s ever had, and probably ever will have. So, when you combine that, with the fact that the Dodgers have “elite” alternatives at 2nd base, it actually was pretty much a “no-brainer”.

At least it was for me, and ended up being for the Dodgers

The Return

So, having made the statement that Lux’s trade value is probably at the highest it ever will be, did the Dodgers maximize that value?

Of course, that’s a matter of opinion, but, for my money, the answer to that question is a solid “YES”.

The organization got a Competitive Balance Round A pick, and then also a young outfielder in Mike Sirota whom the Dodgers actually drafted back in 2021 when he was coming out of High School.

That means the Dodgers amateur scouts have been evaluating him for 4 years now, and, likely the “pro” scouts have evaluated him even though he’s never played a professional affiliated game to this point.

So, he is someone who has been on the Dodger’s radar for a good amount of time, and he fills a need in the Farm System, which is talent in the outfield ranks.

The Competitive Balance Draft rounds are in place to help the smaller market teams compete. The 10 lowest revenue-producing organizations, or the 10 smallest markets, get an extra draft pick to make them more “competitive”.

There are 2 rounds to the Competitive Balance part of the draft, part A and Part B. Part A is between the 1st and 2nd Rounds, which is the pick the Dodgers got in this trade, and that is significant.

How significant? Possibly very much so.

As an example, this pick is likely to come somewhere in the mid to late 30s in terms of overall picks in the draft, and Dalton Rushing, the Dodgers #1 overall prospect was drafted with the 40th pick of the 2022 Draft.

So, the Dodgers will be in a position to draft an “elite” “top prospect” type of player with this pick, and that is huge.

And, keep in mind, the Dodgers needed to make room for their future 26-man roster, and while Lux was going to be on both the 40 and 26-man rosters, neither player coming back in return will, so they added one more spot of flexibility.

Hello Tanner Scott! Well, at least this move makes something like that much, much more plausible just from a math perspective.

And, then, here’s another potential aspect of this deal. Not only do teams that have competitive balance picks get an extra draft pick, but they also get extra International Bonus Pool Money. In fact, for Round A, the round the Dodgers traded for, teams in that slot get $5.25 Million instead of the minimum $4.75 Million.

So, although the Dodgers didn’t get a “Major League” return, it still was absolutely a “Major League” move.

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