Julio Urias will take the mound for the Dodgers tonight while Mike Clevinger gets the ball for the Padres in Game 1 of the 2022 NLDS between the two longtime and heated rivals. Clevinger is 0-2 in his career vs. the Dodgers all coming this year, and all since August 6th, while Julio Urias is 3-0 in 2022 against the Padres and has posted an ERA of 1.50 this year, and is also 6-1 lifetime against San Diego with an ERA of 2.19 in 15 appearances.

Featured image by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images

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Mike Clevinger

Mike Clevinger is a 6’4 31-year-old right-handed pitcher that was drafted in the 4th round of the 2011 draft and spent 5 years with Cleveland before being traded to the Padres in August of 2020. After the 2020 season he had Tommy John Surgery, and, as a result, didn’t pitch in 2021, so this year was the first time he had ever faced the Dodgers. In his 3 outings against the Dodgers this year he went 0-2 with an ERA of 9.69 and gave up 16 hits, 4 walks, and 5 home runs in 13 innings pitched. Clevinger has a 4.15 ERA in 13 post-season innings for his career and, tonight will be his first action in the 2022 playoffs as he was left off the Padres roster in the Wild Card round due to a “non-Covid” illness.

Fastball

Clevinger is listed as having 6 pitches and, like most modern-day pitchers during the era of analytics, throws his 4-seam the most of any pitch in his arsenal. His 4-seam averages 93-94 and has a good spin rate, so he is able to use it to get the riding effect at the top of the zone, and carry the bottom of the zone as well. Between his 4-seam and 2-seam sinker, his fastballs have a hard hit % of close to 50%, so you can bet the Dodgers will be sitting fastball against him again tonight.

Slider

Clevinger features a slider that sits 79-80 and has the highest spin rate of any pitch in the arsenal, and is his 2nd hardest pitch to make hard contact on, and, is, therefore, understandably, his 2nd favorite pitch as he throws it 21% of the time.

Changeup

His changeup has created the most amount of swings and misses in 2022, and is a good change of pace off of his fastball at 86 miles per hour.

Curveball

His curveball is tantalizing as it averages just 76 miles per hour, and it is almost too slow to be effective as it has a hard hit rate in 2022 of close to 40% and a whiff rate of just 14%, so I don’t look for him to throw this pitch much if at all tonight against the Dodgers. His cutter is a little harder pitch than his slider at 86 miles an hour, and he only throws it 14% of the time, but he is strategic with the pitch as it has given him the 2nd highest whiff rate and 3rd lowest hard hit % of any pitch in his arsenal in 2022. From a game plan perspective, the Dodgers will sit on his 4-seam and 2-seam fastballs and force him to prove he can throw his secondary pitches for a strike.

Julio Urias

Julio Urias posted an ERA of just 2.16 on the year which was the best ERA in the National League and 2nd best in all of baseball only behind Justin Verlander of the Astros. He also gave up the fewest amount of earned runs, the 2nd fewest hits of any National League pitcher (127), and posted the 3rd best WHIP in the National League at 0.96. Aside from 2018 where he pitched just 4 innings, Urias set personal bests this year in ERA, WHIP, Runs allowed, and average against, so it was a spectacular year for the 26-year-old who has been in the Dodgers system since 2016. Urias has been hot or cold in the Dodger’s last two playoff appearances as last year he struggled a touch posting a 5.40 ERA, but in 2020 he was dominant. Overall, his post-season ERA is 3.52, his WHIP is 0.99 and his strikeout-to-walk ratio has been 4.5 to 1.

Feature Cut

Urias throws his 4-seam 47% of the time and his best secondary is listed as a curveball but would be more accurately labeled a slurve as it is a hybrid between a curveball and slider. He throws what I’m calling a “slurve” 33% of the time and also features a changeup that he sprinkles in a little less than 1 out of every 5 pitches, then throws a very occasional 2-seam sinker once or twice a game. Urias will sit at 93 and can touch as high as 96 with his 4-seam, so when he drops his 80 MPH curveball, it really keeps hitters off balance. His changeup sits at 86 miles an hour as well, so it is anywhere from 7 to 10 miles an hour off of his fastball which really allows him to pull the string with the pitch. But, he only throws his changeup for a strike 31% of the time as compared to his curveball, which lands in the zone close to 60% of the time, so he has much better command of his curveball than he does his changeup which is why he throws it more.

Keys to the Game

Clevinger is a heavy fastball-slider combo pitcher and he rode the 2-seam fastball in on the hands of the Dodgers hitters quite a bit the last time he faced them and rode the top of the zone a lot with his 4-seam. The key is going to be whether he can get swing and miss with the 4-seam up, and then whether he can control the tail of his 2-seam as he tries to ride it in on the hands of the Dodgers hitters. If he can, then pairs it with his 4-seam at the top of the zone and his 80 mph slider, he could give the Dodgers all they want. The Dodgers will surely be aggressive against his 4-seam, then make Clevinger prove that he can land his 2-seam in on the hands to righties and his slider away. This is the game of Cat and Mouse to watch with this matchup.

The key for Urias is going to be his slurve, in my opinion. If the Padres can’t lay off this pitch, they will not have success against Urias. At the same time, if the game plan is to force him to land it in the strike zone, they might be behind in the count all night as an alternative, and that’s not a recipe for success either. Bottom line is, if Urias lands the slurve to pair with his good 4-seam, he will, most likely, be in good shape and give the Dodgers a great chance to win Game 1.