The Dodgers and Padres are set to take the field tonight for Game 3 of the 2022 NLDS series which is tied 1-1, and the atmosphere is going to be epic as this will be the first time that the City of San Diego has hosted an MLB playoff game since 2006. The Padres just beat the Dodgers in Game 2, are coming off of the momentum of their Mets series, and have Blake Snell on the mound so they will be smelling blood, and the Dodgers will have to find a way to neutralize all of those intangibles.  The Dodgers will have to find a way to knock the wind out of all of those sails and just make it about baseball and what happens on the field.

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Blake Snell

Snell will get the ball for the Padres, and when he pitches, the Padres believe they can win, so this will be a very tough matchup for the Dodgers. He is 29 years old, has logged 812.2 MLB innings, and has posted a lifetime ERA of 3.41, but has posted a better ERA of 3.05 in the 38.1 innings he has pitched in the post-season. Snell has a lifetime ERA against the Dodgers of 2.52 in 39.2 innings and posted a 3.85 ERA in 3 appearances and 14 innings pitched this year in 2022. In his last outing against the Dodgers just a couple of weeks ago he blanked L.A. in 5 innings and struck out 6 and gave up just one hit, so he has recent success in this series. He features a 4-pitch mix and throws his 4-seam fastball, which sits at 95-96, 56% of the time. Like most modern-day pitchers, his 2nd favorite pitch, and most used secondary pitch, is the upper 80s slider he throws about 1 out of every 4 pitches. Snell will sprinkle in 2 or 3 curveballs an inning, and will also throw a handful of changeups throughout the entirety of a game. His curveball dips all the way down into the low 80s, so he has the ability to change speeds on multiple levels.

His Fastball and slider both have a hard-hit % of 42%, so the Dodgers will hunt the 4-seam, then force Snell to land the slider in the zone then will attack the strikes. He only throws his slider in the zone 43% of the time, so the cat-and-mouse game is whether or not the Dodgers can figure out which sliders will end up as strikes and which ones won’t. If the Dodgers lay off his sliders out of the zone, then are aggressive on the ones in it, they will make good contact on this pitch. His changeup only gets hit hard about 17% of the time, so it will be crucial that the Dodgers identify that pitch, and let it tumble out of the zone as he lands it in the zone less than 20% of the time.

Tony Gonsolin

Tony Gonsolin threw the third most innings of any Dodgers pitcher hurling 130.1 innings in 2022.  If he had thrown enough innings to qualify, he would have led the National League in ERA (2.14), an average against at .172, and would have been top 10 in WHIP at 0.89. Gonsolin recorded career bests in ERA, hits per innings pitched, strikeouts, and average against, and had the best walks to innings pitched of his career if you discount 2019 and  2020 where he only threw 40 and 46 innings respectively in those years.

Gonsolin is one of the few pitchers in the Dodgers system that features a split-finger pitch that he throws almost a 1/3 of the time to pair with his 4-seam that sits 93 and can touch 96. He also features a slider that he throws 22% of the time, then he throws an occasional curveball as well. His split finger gives him a right turn to his shapes, his 4-seam gives him the riding effect, his slider gives him a left-turn shape and his curveball gives him the downward tumble, so he has every shape to present a hitter, which is a large reason why he has been so good.

Gonsolin has a lifetime ERA of 1.45 and 32 strikeouts in 31 innings pitched against the Padres in his career. He faced the rivals down South twice this year and threw 12.2 innings in total and gave up just 1 Earned Run and struck out 14 hitters, walked just 1 and just 7 hits, so he was dominant in this series this year. But, that was the regular season and for a lifetime, which is 2020 and 2021, Gonsolin has an ERA of 9.45, a WHIP of 1.80, an average against of .255, and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of less than 2 to 1 in the Post-Season. So, one of the most intriguing aspects of tonight’s game is which part of his past will show dominance, his playoff past, or his past against the Padres and the way he pitched in 2022. He is going to be in a very difficult environment to pitch in, so we’ll see how that plays out.

Dodgers Lineup

Dave Roberts has announced that Cody Bellinger will not be in the lineup to start, that Trayce Thompson will be in Center Field instead, and that Chris Taylor will be in left field. In the last edition, we covered the fact that the Dodgers couldn’t afford to have 2 defensive heavy guys in the outfield at the same time, so one of the two between Bellinger and Thompson would most likely be removed from the lineup, and with the lefty Snell on the bump, the Dodgers chose Bellinger. Bellinger has hit just .167 off of Snell in his career, so this move makes complete sense, and, as soon as he’s gone, or if the Dodgers have the lead in the middle to late innings, you can bet that Bellinger will be put in as a defensive replacement.

Here is how the Dodgers lineup has done against Snell in their careers

So, as you can see, other than Freeman and Smith, Snell has had a lot of success against the Dodgers lineup which is a concern, especially considering that this game is on the road and momentum will surely play a factor. One thing that the road team really needs to do in big games is answer back after the home team has created momentum, just to get things back under control, and the data suggests that scoring on a consistent basis will be a tough chore for the Dodgers tonight.

Padres Lineup

Tonight will be a very interesting Cat and Mouse matchup because Tony Gonsolin loves throwing his split-finger pitch and he lands it in the zone right at 50% of the time and it has a hard hit % of just 32%. The Padres will not want to swing at this pitch, similar to Urias’s slider in Game 1, so the Cat and Mouse aspect to follow is whether it is landing in or out of the zone. If Gonsolin is landing that pitch, he will get ahead in the count, and when he is ahead in the count hitters hit just .134 against him, and his WHIP while ahead in the count is just 0.45.

I can’t see any scenario where the Padres will look to be aggressive against his split finger, so if he doesn’t land it in the zone he will be behind in the count all night, and when he is behind in the count hitters hit .212, which still isn’t good, but it is much better than .134. But, the main stat when Gonsolin gets behind in the count is that his WHIP, walks and hits per innings, balloons to 1.89 so he gives up base runners and the Padres have shown the ability to move runners and situationally hit. Som, the split-finger matchup will be the key to the success or failure tonight for Gonsolin, and it will be a fun matchup to follow as the night progresses.

Here is how the Padres lineup has done against Gonsolin in their careers

Offensive Production

One thing that Padres have been doing that the Dodgers have not is they have been generating runs with the bottom half of their lineup. A large part of that is that they have executed in terms of situational hitting, and have scored 4 runs in the first 2 games on balls that were put in play, but were not base hits.  Compare that to the fact that the Dodgers are just 3 for 16 with runners in scoring position and didn’t get runners in from 3rd in the last game with less than 2 outs, and it’s easy to see how the offense hasn’t been consistent enough. If or when the Dodgers have a chance to put a run on the board, even if it’s just 1, they have to execute or they will not win. The Dodgers can’t rely on home runs to score all of their runs, as evidenced by the fact that combined, with every player in the lineup, Snell has given up just 4 home runs in total for his career against L.A. But, on the plus side, the Dodgers have 4 players in tonight’s lineup that have on-base percentages over .300 against Snell and another, Trea Turner, that is very close to that mark. So, data would suggest that the Dodgers will have plenty of base runners to move over, then move in, but, the question will be whether they can execute situational hitting, something they have not been able to do so far.

Final Thoughts

Tonight is a must-win for the Padres, and, of course, things don’t always work out the way the odds would suggest, but if the Dodgers win tonight, they would be heavy, heavy favorites to win just one of the remaining 2 games with Darvish and Snell out of the equation. So, everything will be all in to win tonight and every bullet will be fired and there will be no consideration of tomorrow. Every decision will be made with the idea of putting the best odds on the field to win tonight, and the clubs and managers will worry about tomorrow, well, when tomorrow comes.

If the Padres win, they will definitely have the advantage, but with Anderson, Heaney, then Urias still left in the Dodgers rotation, I still think the odds would be in the Dodger’s favor at that point, but nobody associated with the Dodgers wants to test those odds. So, here it is, after playing so many meaningless games en route to 111 wins, the tables have flipped and the stakes have risen on tonight’s game, so we’ll see if the Dodgers can flip the switch to “big-game” mode. Stay tuned, it’s gonna be fun, and I simply can’t wait until 5:37 Eastern when the two teams face off in the epic showdown known as Game 3. The game will be televised on Fox Sports 1.

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