Taylor Young: Always a Dawg!

Author:  Published Date: January 4, 2024 Comments: Leave a Comment on Taylor Young: Always a Dawg! 0 1144

Taylor Young: 8th Round (Weighted) Steal

Austin Brubaker

   2023 was a season to remember for Dodgers prospect Taylor Young. In his first full professional season, the 2022 8th round draft pick out of Louisiana Tech was the heart and soul of the Midwest League East Division Champion Great Lakes Loons. He played a fundamentally-sound style of baseball with some of the best baseball smarts and instincts displayed at the High A level in recent memory. Offensively, he was an on-base machine, posting an impressive 0.375 OBP because of his team-leading 82 walks. He was defensively sound and positionally versatile, filling in at 2B, 3B, and SS with regularity. Yet, it was another aspect of his game that elevated his play to being a Midwest League All Star.

 In 2023, Taylor Young stole 56 stolen bases. That is the 2nd most stolen bases in a single season in Great Lakes Loons history. He stole with regularity. He stole second. He stole third. He did delay steals. His ability to steal bases did not primarily come from his speed, but rather his incredible instincts and baseball knowledge. He was an absolute menace for opposing teams to plan around on the base paths.

 His 56 stolen bases were 1st in the Midwest League and 9th in MiLB in 2023. A great accomplishment. A season to remember. Perhaps, even the best stolen base season in Dodgers MiLB history.

   (Weighted) Stolen Bases

To get a true analytical understanding of how good Taylor Young was in 2023 at stealing bases, let’s break down the components of stolen bases.

 To put it simply, stealing a lot of bases is good for your team. Getting caught is not. There must be a balance between frequency and efficiency of stealing bases when opportunities arrive. Analytically, it has been calculated that a runner should be successful in at least 75% of his stolen base attempts to help his team in the long term. Frequent steals above this efficiency mark can be incredibly valuable for a team. This is where the statistic Weighted Stolen Bases (wSB) is introduced.

 Weighted Stolen Bases, or wSB, is a newer statistic attempting to measure both efficiency and frequency. Whereas Stolen Bases (SB) only measures frequency and Stolen Base Percentage (SB%) only measures efficiency, wSB merges the two into a cumulative statistic, rewarding frequency and efficiency as well as accounting for opportunity.

 The concept to reading the statistic is simple: the baseline is 0. Anything above 0 is good. Anything below is not. The further a player is above 0, the better a base stealer he is, with inverse being true.

 For example, Rickey Henderson leads MLB history by far with 1,406 stolen bases, in which he was successful in 80.75% of his opportunities. He also is on top of the wSB all-time leaderboard with a wSB score of 142.7. At the bottom of the wSB leaderboard is Babe Ruth, who, despite having 123 career stolen bases, was caught 116 times. The lack of efficiency lead to a wSB score of -37.4.

Best (Weighted) Stolen Base Season?

As previously mentioned, Taylor Young stole 56 stolen bases. He was only caught stealing 5 times. He was successful in 91.8% of his attempts, leading to a wSB score of 7.6. This mark ranked:

–   1st in the Midwest League

–   1st among Dodgers affiliates

–   6th in MiLB

 Yet, when digging into the history of the Dodgers MiLB affiliates, it becomes even more impressive. To contextualize this, FanGraph’s Minor League Leaderboard, which tracks MiLB statistics since 2006, will be utilized. This is key because the Dodgers have had elite base stealers come through their minor league system recently. James Baldwin. Elian Herrera. Drew Avans. None, perhaps, more so remembered than Dee Strange-Gordon.

 Dee stole 227 bases during his time at the minor league level for the Dodgers, including 73 stolen bases for the 2009 Great Lakes Loons, the most of any Dodgers minor league player since 2006. Taylor Young, analytically, had a better season stealing bases than Dee Strange-Gordon ever had at the MiLB level. While Dee had 73 stolen bases in 2009, he was caught 25 times, leading to a wSB score of 3.9, far below Taylor Young’s 7.6. In fact, the only Dodgers prospect to come close to Taylor Young’s mark was James Baldwin’s 2012 season, where James stole 53 bases in 61 attempts.

 Taylor Young: best base stealer for a Dodgers MiLB affiliate since 2006.

 However, a deep dive into the times where he was caught stealing paints an even brighter picture.

   Weight a Second…

Pickoffs, as defined by MLB, are defined as an attempt by either the pitcher or catcher to throw a runner out as they return to their original base. If the runner makes any attempt towards the next base, it is considered a caught steal.

 Out of Taylor Young’s 5 CS, it can be argued that 4 of them were of the pickoff variety, even if they don’t meet the standard of a pickoff.

 TY did not register a CS until June 20th vs West Michigan. Entering the game, he was a perfect 22 for 22 in stolen base attempts. It was around this point in the season where Taylor started to really test his baseball instincts. He would often be seen dancing off the bases, trying to sense opposing pitcher’s moves. This ultra-aggressiveness was part of the learning curve of Taylor’s development as a professional. Thus, when he danced a bit too far off the bases on June 20th, he was caught after making an initial move to 2nd, and he just stood there, waiting to try to juke out the pitcher. He wasn’t thrown out by the catcher, but rather more of a pickoff than a CS. However, by rule, CS number 1.

 The 2nd CS came on June 28th vs Lansing. Following a 3 stolen base performance, Taylor was running on first move of Lugnuts pitcher Stevie Emanuels. The pitcher threw to first when TY was on his way to second, and he was promptly thrown out. Another pickoff-type situation, but CS number 2.

 The 3rd CS came on July 18th in Lansing. Following a steal of 2nd, TY was caught too far dancing off of 2nd, and was caught in a pickle. Another pickoff-type situation similar to the 1st, but CS number 3.

 The 4th CS came on July 28th against Dayton in a similar situation to his 2nd CS. Another throw-over by the pitcher for CS number 4.

 It wasn’t until August 22nd against Fort Wayne where Taylor Young was thrown out in a traditional CS by TinCaps catcher Anthony Vilar. Every other attempt by a catcher, including two additional attempts in the Midwest League Playoffs, were unsuccessful. August 22nd was, by rule, CS number 5.

 The context of each attempt is important because it alludes to how dominant Taylor Young was on the basepaths. It can even be argued that 4 of his CS could be better categorized as pickoffs.

 Let’s run through a completely unfair but perhaps revealing exercise. Let’s categorize 4 of TY’s CS as pickoffs. By rule, they were CS. But, if they were ruled pickoffs, he would have had 56 steals in 57 attempts. That would be good for a wSB score of 9.3. Not only would that have completely eclipsed all Dodgers MiLB prospects since 2006, but it would also have been good for 9th in MiLB history since 2006. While this exercise only benefits TY and doesn’t provide a comprehensive evaluation, it goes to show just how good Taylor Young is at stealing bases, a rejuvenated aspect of the game with the newly implemented rules in MLB and MiLB.

Worth the Weight

There are measurable qualities and skillsets baseball players have. Other qualities are harder to measure. Grit. Instincts. Baseball IQ. Taylor Young exemplified all these “immeasurable” qualities in 2023. His leadership and performance boosted the Great Lakes Loons to the Midwest League Championship. And while winning at the MiLB level is not the primary goal of an MLB organization, cultivating a winning culture matters and translates. Winning is difficult, requiring sacrifice, teamwork, and communication from everyone. TY, and the rest of the Great Lakes Loons, bought in. As Casey mentioned in a previous article, you want him on your team. An absolute steal for the Dodgers.

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Author: Austin Brubaker

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