Adam Wainwright is one of the oldest pitchers in the MLB but is still performing as if he is at his peak. At 39 years old, the Redbird Veteran not only has been good with a 3.05 ERA, he has also been durable racking up 206.1 innings. In fact, his ERA this year, at 40 years old, is 0.30 points lower than his career average. So, where does Wainwright’s Fountain of Youth come from and what has been his formula for so much success for such a long time? Those are the questions we will attempt to answer in this scouting report, and the puzzle the Dodgers will have to put together tonight.
Not Overpowering
Wainwright is certainly not an overpowering pitcher as his fastball will sit somewhere right around 90 Miles per hour, but he is the ultimate pitchers pitcher. First and foremost he is a strike thrower so he typically forces the other team to have to beat him by hitting the ball vs. giving them a lot of freebies to work with. He is also a master at getting ahead in the count and then burying multiple pitches that are placed in pitchers locations. Wainwright has a great defense behind him, so, as long as the ball isn’t leaving the yard he is happy to induce contact which allows him to get quick outs and allows him to stay in games. Staying in games is something he has a very “old school” approach towards as he believes that it is the pitchers duty to pitch at least 7 innings if not all nine.
Starters Duty
Wainwright has compiled 27 complete games in his career which includes 3 this year and 24 since 2010. He puts hitters in a conundrum. That’s a big word to say that hitters can either be aggressive early in counts at the most hittable pitches, or they can try and grind his pitch count by taking pitches, but then be swinging mainly at pitchers pitches. So, if the Dodgers want to take a lot of pitches to grind his pitch count, they will be behind in the count all night and swinging at pitchers pitches. They will be hitting a pitch with the type of movement and location that will induce contact that will keep the ball in the park. So, 2 of the Dodgers main strategies, to grind the pitch count, then hit homeruns, very well could be competing against each other. Meaning, if the Dodgers try and grind pitch counts against Wainwright, they won’t be swinging at pitches that they can get lift on and hit out of the park. In the vice versa, if they want to make a lot of hard contact, the Dodgers will more than likely have to be aggressive early in counts which leads to quick outs, which is why Wainwright has so many complete games and why he can still, at 39, pitch so many innings.
Wainwrights Stuff
Here’s an example of how Wainwright gets ahead of hitters with well located fastballs that have movement, then induces weak contact on a pitchers pitch after getting ahead in count. In this sequence Wainwright throws Chris Taylor a fastball that starts off the plate outside then has arm side run and comes back to dot the outside corner of the plate. After Taylor takes strike 1, he is then forced to swing at a pitchers pitch and rolls over into a ground out.
So the temptation is to then try and ambush the first strike you see so as to be swinging at more of a hitters pitch as opposed to a pitchers pitch. This is the trap that Wainwright sets and it’s why he is able to work so deep into games as he will get a lot of quick outs when teams do this. In this video he gets a first strike on Will Smith using his slider/cutter, then gets a first strike out on Albert Pujols on his curveball. Wainwright is able to record a lot of quick outs this way which is exactly what he is hoping to do and why he is able to last so long in games.
So, there’s the conundrum in a nutshell. Ambush him early in the count and risk the potential of giving Wainwright a lot of quick outs or take pitches and be forced to hit pitchers pitches all night. The biggest problem hitters have when they try and ambush pitches early in the count is that he can throw 3 pitches for consistent strikes so, even in a ambush, you still can’t just sit on a first pitch fastball. In this video you’ll see 4 different pitches that were all thrown for strike 1. Wainwright throws a cutter to Seager who is left handed that has arm side run and tails back over the inside part of the plate. Then he throws Will Smith, a right handed hitter, a cutter/slider that has glove side run and breaks away from the right handed hitter. He then throws a changeup to Max Muncy and a curveball to Billy McKinney, all for strike 1 and to set up the at bat.
But, if you take pitches and get behind in the count then he has pitches that really have hammers behind them. Here’s a clip of a plus count breaking ball, a sinker that dives below the zone and a fastball that is up and in that has arm side run.
Game Plan
The best laid plans are just that, plans, but I do think the Dodgers are going to have to be selective when they are patient vs. when they choose to be agressive early in counts. It will be interesting to see is if the Dodgers strike and are able to get hits and score when they are aggressive or if they just simply end up making quick outs when they swing early in counts. Buckle up and get ready because the Post Season is here and tonight we play for keeps. Hopefully that means that when the 27th out is made the Dodgers will get to keep playing.
