Dodgers Front Office: Perception vs. Reality

The standard in the Dodgers organization is to win a World Series every year, and, anything short of that is seen as a failure by Dodgers fans, a fan base that has possibly the most passion and loyalty in the game.

But, although the Dodgers fans are loyal, passionate, and regularly pack Dodgers stadium, are they realistic with their expectations?

Today’s article is going to provide some statistical data in an attempt to address that question.

Deals

The timeline that this article is going to cover is from 2020 to the current. The reason I chose that timeline is that the Dodgers won the World Series in 2020, so I think we can all agree that everyone is happy with that, so any criticism of the Front Office surely has to be directed towards moves since then. 

And, honestly, there have been a bunch of them, many I had forgotten about.

 Since 2020 the Dodgers have signed 20 players via Free Agency that make more than 1 Million dollars. Trevor Bauer, Blake Treinen, Freddie Freeman, Tyler Anderson, and Andrew Heaney highlight that list of Free Agents, and all of those players, with the exception of Bauer, of course, have given very positive contributions.

The Dodgers have also acquired Max Scherzer, Trea Turner, Alex Vesia, Chris Martin, Joey Gallo, Trayce Thompson, and Craig Kimbrel via trade. I think we can all agree that Gallo and Kimbrel did not work out whereas the rest all proved to be good moves.

Also, keep in mind that, during that period, the Dodgers also re-signed Chris Taylor, re-signed Clayton Kershaw twice, and, the year prior to this timeline, traded for Mookie Betts then signed him to a 12-year, $365,000,000 contract. 

Betts’s contract, when signed, was the 2nd largest contract in MLB history and it went into effect for the 2021 season, so you could make the argument that it fits the timeline of this article as well.

The Dodgers have also signed lower-profile guys like Tommy Kahnle and Hanser Alberto that made at least some type of contribution.

But, that’s not where it stops.

Evan Phillips, who has turned into one of the best relievers in the game, and Phil Bickford who was fantastic in 2021, before fighting the injury bug in 2022, were picked up off of waivers and Yency Almonte was signed to a Minor League Contract when he was acquired.

The Dodgers have proven they most definitely are willing to spend if it’s in a position of need and the price is one that fits both in the “short-term” and “long-term” financial plan and overall strategy of the payroll.

But, you might be asking, yeah, but what about all of the players the Dodgers didn’t re-sign?

Isn’t that an indication of how the club doesn’t like to spend big?

Since the Dodgers won the World Series in 2020 they have chosen not to re-sign some pretty big names, and certainly, players that were key to winning the World Series, so this is a valid question and one that has merit on some, if not many, levels.

So, let’s investigate.

Since 2020, the Dodgers have chosen to not re-sign or have traded 19 different players that have made $1,000,000 or more. This list has some serious fire-power in it highlighted by Trea Turner, A.J. Pollock, Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson, Kenley Jansen, Kike Hernandez, Corey Seager, Max Scherzer, Joe Kelly, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, Tommy Kahnle, and Chris Martin. 

Let’s look at how some of these players have done since moving on from the Dodgers.

Position Players

Kike Hernandez has hit .238 in 2 years since being a Dodger and hit .222 with an OPS of .629 this past season, and A.J. Pollock hit .245 with an OPS of .681 last year. Both of those players were outperformed by Trayce Thompson who hit .256 with an OPS of .860 this season. 

Chris Taylor assumed the utility role and out-performed Kike in 2021, the year after he moved to Boston, so trading Taylor for Kike in that role proved to be the right decision, or, at least, not the wrong one. 

Joc Pederson had a good year in 2022 hitting .274 with an OPS of .874, and he seemed to be a fan favorite with the Dodgers, so he is one that could be considered a loss. But, keep in mind that he hit just .238 with an OPS of .682 in his last year with L.A., then hit just .230 with an OPS of .718 with the Cubs who signed him as a free agent after his career as a Dodger. 

Trayce Thompson outperformed both of those stints and put up very similar offensive numbers as Pederson in 2022 while playing better defense.  A.J. Pollock also easily outperformed Pederson in 2021 hitting .297 with an OPS of .891, so, again, whether you think it was the right move or not, the numbers have favored the Dodgers when it comes to letting Joc Pederson enter free agency.

Corey Seager is a great player but he was replaced with Trea Turner who is either his equal or maybe even better, and both of those players signed very long contracts. In fact, contracts that suggest the years will outlast the production, possibly by a lot.

Let’s examine

In 2022 there were only 4 players over the age of 31 that were in the top 10 in any of the categories of average or OPS, and none in the top 10 in home runs. 

And one of the Top 10 in both average and OPS was with the Dodgers, Freddie Freeman.

The data clearly suggests that paying position players well into their 30s is just not wise and Trea Turner will be getting paid until he is 40 while Corey Seager will be getting paid into his late 30s.

So, the Dodgers passed on the Corey Seager and Trea Turner bidding wars, and, again, there’s no statistical measure that can be used to prove the Dodgers have made the wrong decision in those cases.

Cody Bellinger may or may not regain his 2019 MVP form, that is an unknown. But, what the Dodgers do know, in cold hard statistical fact, is that he has hit .165 and .210 with 244 strikeouts in the last 2 years.

And, if he does regain his MVP form, who is to say the Dodgers won’t pick him back up when that happens and reap the benefits from it? 

It doesn’t appear as if that bridge was burned in either direction.

Pitchers

In terms of pitching, the waters get a little muddier. The Dodgers have lost 11 pitchers that make over $1,000,000,000 to Free Agency since they won the World Series in 2020, and they also traded Ross Stripling. 

The list of pitchers they have lost is highlighted by Pedro Baez, Alex Wood, Max Scherzer, Joe Kelly, Kenley Jansen, Corey Knebel, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, Chris Martin, Tommy Kahnle, Ross Stripling, and Adam Kolarek.

But, the Dodgers were first in all of the MLB in both 2021 and 2022 in ERA, WHIP, and average against, so, there’s no other conclusion other than, the Dodgers have replaced those that they have lost with pitchers that have made them better. 

In fact, again, the pitchers that have been acquired to replace those that have been lost have helped the Dodgers become the best pitching staff in baseball 2 years in a row. 

Having said that, losing Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, Chris Martin, and Tommy Kahnle this past year is a big haul, especially considering that, so far, the only addition to the pitching staff has been Shelby Miller, a veteran pitcher who is a reclamation project.

But, if I had asked you a year ago if Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, Chris Martin, Yency Almonte, or Tommy Kahnle was going to be considered big losses just a year later, the answer would have been no.

At least by most rational Dodgers fans. 

In 2019 Tyler Anderson posted an ERA of 11.76, and since then he has been with 5 different clubs and the best ERA he had posted was 4.35. 

Andrew Heaney’s numbers were almost identical to Andersons and Chris Martin is 36 and just signed a 2-year contract worth 17,500,000, so, surely no one is upset that the Dodgers didn’t try to match that.

To finish my thoughts, the Dodgers have proven to have a balanced approach to filling out their roster and one that has allowed them to absorb losses and improve while doing so. They’ve also avoided long contracts to players in their 30s, maintained possibly the best Farm system, won a World Series, and have piled up record amounts of wins as well.

Of course, everyone wants to win a World Series every year but, when trying to be realistic, keep the following data in mind. The Dodgers have won 7 titles & the closest gap between championships was from 1963 to 1965. The next closest span was a 3-season span between 1959 & 1963, so the Dodgers are in as good of shape as they possibly ever have been. 

The plan has worked, the club has avoided long-term deals that could jeopardize yearly success, and you can bet they want to win another World Series just as badly as we all do.

But, they also want to be in a position to win one every year, and they have squarely met those expectations 

Author: casey.porter

I have been a teacher and coach at Guthrie Public Schools for almost 30 years. I taught Special Education for the first 18 years of my teaching career and have taught US History and AP US for the last 10. I have been a coach at the High School level for 30 years and have been a Head Coach in multiple sports, most recently being Baseball at Guthrie High School. I love baseball and I love the Dodgers, and being located in Oklahoma, I have the chance to go to several Drillers and OKC games each year and love covering the Minor League teams.

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