When the Dodgers and the Padres hook up this weekend for the first time in 2023, it will be a first-place vs. 3rd place matchup. The Dodgers have scrapped and clawed their way to the top of the NL West posting a 19-13 record while the Padres, with all the off-season acquisitions, surely aren’t satisfied with a 17-15 mark and a third-place standing, although they have won 4 of their last 5 games.
Game 1
The first game of the series will feature a great matchup between the Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw and the ultra-talented Yu Darvish. Despite his 1-2 record, Darvish hasn’t been bad so far in 2023 posting a 3.60 ERA, a WHIP of 1.20, an average against of .229, and a K/BB ratio of almost 3:1.
The last time Darvish faced the Dodgers he shut them down in the playoffs last year. On September 2nd he went 7 innings of scoreless baseball and struck out 9 while walking just 2.
The matchup tonight is going to be a tough one for the Dodgers, so let’s break it down a little more.
Darvish is a 7-pitch pitcher featuring a sweeper, 4-seam fastball, slider, split-finger, cutter, sinker, and curveball. He is extremely balanced in terms of his pitch selection and doesn’t throw any one of his pitches more than 23% of the time.
The pitch he throws the most is his sweeper at 23%, followed closely by his 4-Seam fastball at 22%, then his slider at 21%. He throws his split finger 11% of the time, then throws all the rest of his pitches less than 10% of the time.
Although he throws his sweeper the most, and that pitch gives him the highest whiff rate at 25.5%, he only lands it in the zone 53.5% of the time. And, the swing-and-miss rate on that pitch goes all the way down to 12.8% when that pitch is actually landing in the strike zone.
So, the obvious key here is to identify the spin of that pitch, identify its starting point, and use those 2 keys to ONLY swing at it if it has a high probability of being in the zone. If the Dodgers do that, it will create a Triple Crown of success, because it will put the LA hitters in plus counts, it will lead to walks, and also consistent hard contact.
Darvish’s 4-Seam fastball has been a good pitch for him as well averaging 94.5 MPH but has a whiff rate of just 15.7%, so it’s not a huge swing-and-miss pitch for him. But, it is a pitch that he induces a lot of weak contact with having a hard hit % of just 34.8%. If the pitch is straight, and in the zone, the Dodgers will make a lot of contact, the cat and mouse will be how hard that contact is though.
His slider is a little tighter than his sweeper, but, again, lands in the zone less than 50% of the time, so the key is going to be identifying the pitch and not chasing the zone trying to hit it. The swing and miss % on that pitch, when hitters chase it out of the zone, is almost 60%, so he relies on that to get outs with that pitch.
His Split-finger lands in the zone just 33.3% of the time, so it’s a pitch the Dodgers could and should make backfire on him when he throws it because it’s not a pitch he throws for strikes on a regular basis.
The keys may sound overly simplified and super standardized, but Darvish throws the kitchen sink at hitters and relies on confusion leading to swings and misses. He relies on hitters to chase the zone for both swing and miss and weak contact, and that’s something the Dodgers are very good at not doing.
So, simply put, if the Dodgers force Darvish to land his sweeper, slider, and split-finger in the zone, they will be in plus counts and get “hittable” 4-seam fastballs to hit, because Darvish will be forced to make sure it’s thrown for a strike. He won’t be able to “nibble” with that pitch at that point, and the odds of making hard contact will go up substantially.
If the Dodgers chase the sweeper, slider, and split-finger, they will be behind in the count and Darvish will have the luxury of locating his 4-seam on the edges, and, thus, the probability of hard contact for the Dodgers hitters will go down.
Dodgers vs Padres
The Dodgers have scored 45 more runs on the year in the exact same amount of games and have been better in batting average, on-base %, slugging, OPS, and home runs, and, in some cases, by a fairly substantial margin.
In terms of pitching LA and San Diego have virtually identical team ERAs, LA at 4.32 and San Diego at 4.33, so the pitching matchups look even.
As far as relief pitching the Padres have been a little better than the Dodgers, but neither team has set the world on fire in this area. The LA relievers have an ERA of 4.43, which is just the 22nd best in the MLB, while the Padres relievers have an overall ERA of 4.11.
Tatis Jr. Factor
Tatis Jr. returned to action for the Padres but has played all 12 games in right field. His offense hasn’t been elite, as he’s hitting just .255 OPS .693 since his return. But the Padres are 8-4 since his return, so, no question, he’s had a positive impact.
Final Thoughts
The atmosphere at Petco Park is going to be insane this weekend, so I am super pumped. Adding to the excitement is that both teams have their sites set on a World Championship, and both are playing very well coming into the series.
Personally, I enjoy it when the NL West competition is better like the Padres should be this year because it creates excitement. This weekend series is a great example of that, and, ultimately, I think that keeps the players engaged and makes for a team that stays locked in. In the long run, although it might lead to a lesser record, I think it’s ultimately a positive for the Dodgers because it keeps them sharp. I don’t think it does anyone any good when the Division is basically won by June, and I think that reaches from the FO all the way to the least-used player on the 26-man roster.
I am so pumped to get this series underway, so, all I have left to type is Go Dodgers!
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