Austin Gauthier: Defying the Odds

By: Austin Brubaker

There are many foundations on which a successful baseball organization lies: financial flexibility, coaching, scouting, analytics, culture, player development, and the farm system, among other things. Being advanced and on the cutting edge in each of these aspects are necessary to having sustained success.

 The farm system has been seen as being a consistent strength for the Los Angeles Dodgers because of their ability to identify talent that fits the culture and the ability to surround them with the best information and instructions. Having an influx of talent from the farm system provides flexibility for the major league club to acquire top-end talent, whether that comes from calling them up or trading them for talent.

 In recent years, there has been a re-dedication to cover the farm system and the guys most likely to make an impact at the major league level. There are many great publications who spend hundreds of hours watching film and talking to scouts around the league to come up with their prospect lists for teams. These are fun and very informative on the guys most likely to reach the MLB one day. They are, however, not perfect, and they can often underrate or overlook talent. One such name in the Dodgers’ farm system often overlooked is Austin Gauthier.

Austin Gauthier

Austin Gauthier is a bit of a throwback-type player in the modern game of three true outcomes, yet he merges his old school game with modern principles. The undrafted 24-year-old from Hofstra pairs incredible bat-to-ball skills and the ability to spray the ball all over the ballpark with positional versatility and a high emphasis of plate discipline. Gauthier, or Gator, as he is known by his teammates as, draws a lot of walks and limits strikeouts by modern terms. He plays fundamentally sound baseball with a lot of grit and determination. Yet, it is his ability to combine this plate discipline with production rarely seen at the minor league level. To see just how rare this is, let’s go over some terminology and its importance.

 Analytical Terms and Context

Predicting Success: FIP and XFIP

Click to read all about the explanations of Advanced Analytics

wRC+ is an advanced offensive statistic designed to compare an individual’s offensive output to the league’s environment. The complicated formula considers all countable offensive statistics (walks, strikeouts, home runs, etc.), weighs them based on the value of each outcome, and adjust for additional factors to create a new all-encompassing offensive statistic. While its calculation is advanced, the concept is simple; league average is 100, with values above 100 being better than league average (inverse is true). So, for example, Dalton Rushing had a wRC+ of 146 in High A Great Lakes in 2023, meaning he was 46% better than the league average hitter in the Midwest League.

 wRC+ and statistics like it are necessary because the environment of the league changes through the years. For example, the Pacific Coast League had a league-average OPS of .822 in 2023, whereas the Midwest League had a league-average OPS of .702. Thus, while Dodgers prospect Alex Freeland’s .707 OPS would be well below league average in the Pacific Coast League, it was a little above league average in the Midwest League. Context matters.

 Another metric that will be used in this article is BB/K. This is a very simple calculation, with a hitter’s walks being divided by that player’s strikeouts. So, for example, Dodgers prospect Taylor Young had 82 walks and 112 strikeouts in 2023 for the Great Lakes Loons. So, his BB/K was 0.73. This statistic, however, does not tell the full story.

 The game of baseball has seen some drastic changes over the past several decades, with, perhaps, no more drastic change than the increase in strikeouts. The game has transitioned more into a game of efficiency and power. Pitchers are throwing harder and with more movement than ever. Hitters are prioritizing hitting for power and making hard contact. This combination has ballooned the strikeout rate among hitters. There has been a ~ 35% increase in strikeouts since 2006 (~ 2% increase in walks over the same time-period). Thus, the league BB/K has been steadily decreasing over the years. In 1990, there 37 qualified hitters with more walks than strikeouts in MLB. Since 2015, there have been 37 seasons of qualified hitters with more walks than strikeouts.

 While the game has changed and context to league environment is not considered, BB/K is still a good measure to see how good a player is with their bat-to-ball skills. Thus, this statistic will be used, with additional context provided when necessary.

 Austin Gauthier’s 2023 Season

Click to watch several videos of Gauthier in action

Austin Gauthier, statistically, had an incredible 2023 season. Splitting time between High A Great Lakes and AA Tulsa, Gator slashed .316/.435/.475 over 579 plate appearances. He had an insane 17.3% BB% paired with a 14.5 K%, leading to a 1.19 BB/K (14th in MiLB, min 400 PA). Gauthier also had 46 extra base hits and 19 stolen bases.

 Another key aspect of value for Gator is his positional versatility. He played at least 14 games at 2B, 3B, SS, LF, and RF last season. Positional versatility provides flexibility for a manager and has become an increased focus for organizations.

 Yet, it’s Gauthier’s contextual level of production that sticks out. He had a 151 wRC+ in 2023, which was 14th in all MiLB (min 400 PA). He was 51% better than the league average hitter in 2023 in a large sample size. Yet, that he achieved this mark with bat-to-ball skills and discipline to the degree of which he did that is so incredibly rare.

 150 wRC+, 1.00 BB/K Club

To see just how rare the merging of production and plate discipline is, research was done on all MiLB players using FanGraphs’ Minor League Leaderboard. Gauthier met the 150 wRC+, 1.00 BB/K Club in 579 plate appearances (PA).

 There were 4,857 MiLB seasons of 500 plate appearances. Below is a table of, out of the 4,857 players who had 500 PA, all the players who had a 150 wRC+, and 1.00 BB/K.

 There have been just 21 players since 2006 that had 500 PA, 150 wRC+, and a 1.00 BB/K. That is 0.45% of all 500 PA MiLB seasons. This list contains 13 big leaguers, including 5 All Stars. It is also an increasingly rare feat to accomplish, with a steady decrease in BB/K rate. Austin Gauthier is part of an ultra-rare class in which 65% of its members are big leaguers and 25% of its members are All Stars.

 Setting the bar for 500 PA might be seen as a bit too high, as not everyone gets 500 PA during a MiLB season. To increase the sample size, the bar was lowered to 400 PA.

 There have been 11,847 seasons of 400 PA in the MiLB since 2006. Below is the 400 PA, 150 wRC+, and 1.00 BB/K club.

 There have been just 31 players since 2006 with 400 PA, a 150 wRC+, and a 1.00 BB/K. That is 0.295% of all seasons with 400 PA. Among this list are 22 big leaguers and 7 All Stars. Austin Gauthier achieved an even rarer feat that has a track record of turning 75.86% of individuals from 2006-2022 into big leaguers (31.8% of big leaguers into All Stars).

 Austin Gauthier defied the odds in 2023, reaching a level of production and plate discipline rarely seen. There seems to be a solid association between this level of play and a future of playing in the big leagues, an opportunity few minor league players get to experience. Yet, the future for Gauthier and the Dodgers seems even more promising when simplifying the categories more.

 400 PA, 150 wRC+

As previously stated, BB/K is not a league-adjusted statistic. So, its predictive power is limited. More on that later. A statistic that does adjust for league-averages is wRC+. Austin Gauthier, with his 151 wRC+, was 51% better than the league average hitter in 2023. Let’s see what history says about those types of players.

 –   There were 347 players that had 400 PA and a 150 wRC+ in MiLB from 2006-2023. 21 of those players were former big leaguers, so the sample size was reduced to 326 since we are trying to predict future success.

o   Roughly 3% of all MiLB seasons

 –   Looking specifically at players who met the criteria from 2006-2022, 73.4% of those players made the big leagues so far.

o   That’s 229 out of 312 players who meet the criteria.

o   Those players had a median of 1017 PA and a median 97 wRC+ in their MLB careers so far.

 –   For those who made the big leagues from 2006-2022, 59 of those players became All Stars. That’s 25.76% of the big leaguers, and 18.91% of all players with one season of 400 PA and 150 wRC+.

o   For added context, there were 229 All Star position players who debuted sometime between 2006 and 2023. 59 of those players met this category in MiLB, or 25.76%.

–  The percent chance of an MLB position player being an All Star, to the best of my research, is around 8-13%.

 As the bullet points indicate, having a 150 wRC+ even once in your minor league career has a strong association with reaching the big leagues, that category has produced plenty of All Stars. This is phenomenal company for Gauthier to be part of, especially with teams trying to predict staying power and impact at the major league level.

 This would be good enough news for the Dodgers, but they have three other players in their system that fit this category: Michael Busch, Thayron Liranzo, and Andy Pages. Tremendous talent with high-probability upside. Austin Gauthier deserves to be in that conversation.

 400 PA, 1.00 BB/K

Players in MiLB with 400 PA and 1.00 BB/K since 2006 were also investigated. The results were not as predictive as wRC+, but they are important for later in the article. Below are the results.

 –   There were 283 players that had 400 PA and a 1.00 BB/K in MiLB from 2006-2023. 28 of those players were former big leaguers, so the sample size was reduced to 255 since we are trying to predict future success.

o   Roughly 3.4% of all MiLB seasons

 –   Looking specifically at players who met the criteria from 2006-2022, 52.77% of those players made the big leagues so far.

o   That’s 124 out of 235 players who meet the criteria.

o   Those players had a median of 614 PA and a median 82 wRC+ in their MLB careers so far.

 –   For those who made the big leagues from 2006-2022, 20 of those players became All Stars. That’s 16.13% of the big leaguers, and 8.51% of all players with one season of 400 PA and 1.00 BB/K

Further Examination on Possible Concerns

Austin Gauthier: Disciplined, Tough, Talented

Click to read Austin Gauthiers Feature Article

No prospect is perfect. All of them have areas to work on. So, when looking at Austin Gauthier’s 2023 season, one might initially be concerned or point out the .359 BABIP, or batting average on balls in play. Typically, the league average BABIP is .300, and it is often a good indicator of future regression. Yet, Gauthier’s 2023 BABIP is not abnormal for those with 400 PA and 150 wRC+. In fact, the median BABIP for that category was .361. So, while that could be an indicator of possible regression next season in his MiLB wRC+, it is not out of line with future projections of the 400 PA, 150 wRC+ club. Remember, that category only requires 1 season meeting the criteria.

 A bigger concern for Gauthier has to do with his power production.

 A good statistical measure for power is called ISO. While a statistic like slugging percentage (SLG) takes into account all hits, ISO specifically looks at extra base hits and weighs them accordingly. For context, a league average ISO is typically around .150. The past two seasons, Austin Gauthier has produced a .138 and .160 ISO, which is right around average.

 Now, let’s look at his numbers in context with the elite categories he is with. While his ISO numbers were in the 76th percentile for those with 400 PA and 1.00 BB/K, it was in the 5th percentile for those with 400 PA and 150 wRC+. This is a bit of a concern, as many of the productive major leaguers in that category hit for more power. Power is incredibly valuable. However, I’d argue having a high floor is also incredibly important, and Gauthier’s 97th percentile BB/K in the 400 PA, 150 wRC+ club in combination with his 92nd percentile BB% is an incredibly high floor to work with.

 In 2022, Austin Gauthier spent the 2nd half of the season with Great Lakes. In 81 plate appearances, he hit .181 with a .222 BABIP and only 4 extra base hits. Yet, he still had an 87 wRC+ because he drew a ton of walks and limited the strikeouts. Combined with his positional versatility, he can still be a valuable and productive piece on a roster because this level of plate discipline creates a high floor of production. If additional power is added and the BABIP is league average, the floor grows even higher.

 This is not to say the extent of his plate discipline will transition completely to the major leagues. There often is a drop in plate discipline when players make the jump to the big leagues as they face the very best pitchers in the world. I would, however, give Austin Gauthier as good of a chance to sustain this success. He ranks in the 98th percentile in BB% among those with 400 PA and 1.00 BB/K, which is a skill that seems to have some staying power, as we’ve seen in an example like Ryan Noda.

 Defying the Odds

All of this is rare enough for Gauthier, who has accomplished so much, and projects to be a big leaguer. What might be even more impressive is that he is this good while being undrafted in the 2021 draft. In 2021, the MLB draft shrunk to 20 rounds, limiting the opportunities for players to get drafted. In the past, there have not been many undrafted free agents (excluding international free agents) who have made the big leagues. Since 2006, there have been just 48 position players to debut in the MLB who were undrafted and born in the US, or around 2% of all hitters to debut since 2006. If no one debuts before him, except him to be #49. Austin Gauthier continues to defy the odds.

  Final Thoughts

The accomplishments of MiLB players, especially those without a ton of notoriety, often aren’t highlighted and appreciated for just how unique and rare they are. Austin Gauthier had an incredible 2023 season. He did something only 20 other MiLB players have done since 2006. He didn’t just accomplish something incredibly rare; it also is a good indication of a future big leaguer. His rare skill set and positional versatility, if he continues to progress and develop, has immense value and great projection for the major leagues. It’s time for Dodgers fans, and fans across baseball, to start getting excited about the upside and projectability of Austin Gauthier.