Reasons for Optimism: Will the Dodgers Still Win the NL West?

It’s been one of the craziest years in recent memory for the Dodgers so far in 2023, and the roller coaster ride seems to have no end. 

The craziness has seen Gavin Lux tear his ACL, Walker Buehler having Tommy John Surgery, Tony Gonsolin rehabbing at the MLB level, to Clayton Kershaws mom passing, to Dustin May going on the IL as well as Julio Urias. 

Adding to the mayhem has been the fact that very reliable bullpen arms from years past have been up and down, and this was always going to be a year that saw a bunch of action from rookies to begin with. When you throw all of that in the pot, it brews together as a patch work roster leading to performances on the field that are more in line with trying to stay above water vs. setting things up to make a World Series run. 

But, that’s the present, and the future still looks very bright when you dive below the surface.

The Diamondbacks lead the Dodgers by 3.5 games in the NL West, which is a surprise unless you have paid attention to all of the very good young players in their system. They are young, very talented, super athletic and massively hungry. For those reasons, plus a handful or 2 others, it shouldn’t be assumed that they will fall apart. They have positioned themselves to be a force for the remainder of this year and the years to come as well. 

Having said that, the Dodgers have an easier schedule for the remainder of the year, and, according to multiple power rankings sites, by quite a bit. Team Rankings ranks the D-Backs remaining schedule as the 3rd toughest and the Dodgers the 3rd easiest. Power Rankings Guru ranks the D-Backs schedule as the 8th hardest and the Dodgers the 4th easiest. 

So, although being down 3.5 games isn’t acceptable in the Dodgers organization, it is understandable, and certainly is correctable. In fact, it should be assumed, IMO, that the Dodgers are still the clear favorites to win the NL West. 

Not only do the Dodgers have a favorable schedule for the remainder of the year, they likely are going to get healthier as well which should then make them more consistent. 

In the near future the rotation could/should be Urias, Kershaw, Gonsolin, Miller and possibly Pepiot, Grove, Knack, Sheehan or Stone. Urias is a bonafide ace, Kershaw is a Hall of Famer that has gone 7 innings 5 times this year, Gonsolin had Cy Young type statistics last year and Miller has had one of the best starts to his career of any rookie in the game.

As per the 5th spot in the rotation, there is reason to be optimistic. Pepiot has an ERA at the MLB level of 3.47, which, of all qualified starting pitchers this year, would rank in the Top 30.

That would make him one of, if not the best #5 starter in the MLB.

Michael Grove has made too many mistakes but has shown flashes of why the Dodgers are so high on his potential, Landon Knack has had a great year and just got promoted to AAA OKC and the same with Emmet Sheehan.

Landon Knack: 4 Plus Pitches

Knack is a 4 pitch strike thrower that, although he can hit 96, uses command at a very high level to get hitters out. Sheehan has touched 99 and has 88 Ks in 53.1 innings. 

Emmet Sheehan: Headed to 100!

Offensively, the Dodgers have scored the 2nd most runs in the NL, so the 2nd place standing is not because of a lack of runs. The Dodgers have 3 players that are Top 10 in OPS in Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts and and JD Martinez. They also have 3 players that are Top 10 in HRs, Max Muncy, Mookie Betts and JD Martinez. JD, Max, Freddie and Mookie are all within the Top 11 in RBIs and James Outman is Top 10 in doubles. 

So, although it’s been “Boom or Bust”, and has come up empty from time to time, it’s hard to complain about the offense. 

It boils down to pitching. 

The Dodgers have led the NL in ERA every year since 2017, but this year are just 11th. Instability, injuries, unexpected poor performances and just an overall lack of consistency has led to this drop off. But, again, help appears to be around the corner with the return of Urias, Daniel Hudson, Ryan Pepiot, and possibly Dustin May. 

All in all, when combining the remaining schedules with the pitchers returning, to the Dodgers having a ton of prospect capital to make a deal, I am very confident this team will still win the NL West. And, that’s despite the fact that I do not think the DBacks will collapse. 

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